On the 19th of April 2022, the super mushshak trainer aircraft with two military officers on board crashed at Kaduna with no survivors.
This is one of the 14 NAF aircraft crashes between 2015 and 2022. These aircraft crashes have led to the loss of 15 NAF aircraft worth an estimated $135.13 million. Apart from the financial loss, it has also resulted in the loss of top military personnel.
The Nigerian Air Force is the youngest arm of the Nigerian military and one of the largest in Africa. Nigerian air force ranked 67th in the global air power ranking with a 17.9 true value rating (TvR).
Under the Buhari-led administration, the Nigeria Air force inducted 38 new aircraft into its fleets to strengthen its air power. From 2015 to 2021, the serviceability status increased from 35% in 2015 to about 72% in September 2021.
Data from the World Directory of Modern Military Aircraft (WDMMA) shows that the service has 138 total units in its active aircraft inventory, with excellent readiness units of 110 aircraft, assuming a readiness rate of 80.0%.
The loss of aircrafts could likely impact the country’s future ratings.
Of the 15 incidents, the reported cause of the crash was only available in 12 crashes. Ten out of the twelve crashes were in a non-combatant situation which equals non-combatant crashes of 83.3% out of crashes that took place in the period under review.
Of the non-combatant crashes, one was as a result of human error by the pilot, another because of bad weather. Two aircrafts crash-landed, and another two crashed as a result of airborne technical error. Two aircrafts collided in a training situation, resulting in a crash.
The highest occurrence of crashes were in 2019 and 2021, with four crashes in each. It was only in 2020 that the Nigeria Air Force did not record or report any aircraft mishap.
When the cost of each aircraft lost to crashes is considered, it comes to a total of $135.13 Million.
Aside from the loss of aircrafts, these crashes have led to the loss of top military personnel. The most notable is the May 21, 2021 incident, which led to the death of the Chief of Army Staff. Lt. Gen Attahiru Ibrahim and other top officers with him.
An analysis shows that between 2015 to 2022, 35 lives were lost to these crashes. However, only 27 identities of the victims were reported. Those reports show that ten flight lieutenants, four generals, and four sergeants have died in these crashes.
It was also reported that three civilians lost their lives in these crashes.
The death of Lt. Gen Attahiru Ibrahim makes him the third serving service chief to die because of an aircraft mishap. Lt. Col Joseph died in a helicopter crash in 1968, and Col. Shittu Alao was a plane crash victim in 1969.
After most aircraft crashes, the NAF always promises to investigate the immediate and remote causes of these crashes although these findings are not usually shared publicly.
Air accidents no doubt occur, but the frequency of these air mishaps especially in non-combatant situations raises a major concern.
Beacon security analyst Kabiru Adamu said past investigations were not made public, and that this affects accountability. “To check the crashes, the first is to ensure investigations are thoroughly conducted and their outcomes are studied and implemented.”
Retired Air Force officer Darlington Abdullahi however argued that results are not meant to be publicised.
An analysis that breaks down the crash investigations process acknowledged that crash investigations can run long and involve multiple stakeholders but it ends with a conclusion that reports ought to be made public. “The final report, including all the safety recommendations, is released by the country that conducted the investigation to the public and is aimed at improving aviation safety and not to apportion blame.”
While this analysis is not specific to military crashes, it makes sense to generalise its description of crash investigations from inquiry to public sharing of findings. Especially so in the case of non-combatant crashes, where critical safety information about crashes could influence decision making in terms of what to purchase in the future and where to purchase such.
The literature around whether military crash investigations are made public is not easily unearthed unlike the literature around civilian crashes, which makes Nigeria’s position on not publishing these reports not unique.
That these crashes lead to the loss of military resources, personnel, and material and they could also affect the country’s battle against insecurity is a justifiable cause for the curiosity around investigation reports.
As Air Vice Marshal, Adebiyi Okanlawon (rtd) said in one report, the military might consider making parts of these reports public to assuage speculations. His quote reads in part “I think we should conduct appropriate investigations into all these and make some of them (findings) public to rest the minds of Nigerians and show that they are not due to carelessness. “The public will also be able to understand when we make a case for funding in aviation. Because the industry needs a Marshal Plan now. We are down and just managing. We need to get back to basics”.