The 2023 election is a decisive moment for Nigeria, given the nation’s sensitive fiscal, security and economic conditions. But far beyond that, the election is a defining moment for each of the three leading candidates of perhaps the three most visible parties.
With the victory of former Lagos State Governor and candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Bola Ahmed Tinubu, all is now set for what’s possibly a three-man show-down in next year’s election. Tinubu won the election by a landslide after beating the likes of Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, former Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi, and the Senate President, Ahmad Lawan.
Tinubu polled a total of 1,271 votes – more than four times the votes scored by his closest rival, Rotimi Amaechi, who had 316 votes. Osinbajo, Lawan, and Governor Yahaya Bello of Kogi State came far behind with 235, 152, and 47 votes respectively. More than 2,300 delegates voted in the drama-filled contest that produced the former governor of Lagos as the presidential flag bearer of the ruling party.
He is now scheduled to face the Peoples Democratic Party’s Atiku Abubakar, Labour Party’s Peter Obi, and other candidates from other parties, in the February 25 presidential ballot.
Atiku had emerged candidate at the PDP presidential primary held penultimate week after polling 371 votes to defeat the Governor of Rivers State, Nyesom Wike, who scored 237 votes. Other aspirants with the number of votes polled include Bukola Saraki – 70; Sam Ohuanbunwa – 1; Anyim Pius Anyim – 14; Udom Emmanuel – 38 votes; Bala Mohammed – 20.
Obi, on his part, was declared Obi winner and presidential candidate of the Labour Party for the 2023 general election having polled a total of 96 votes out of the 97 valid votes with one invalid vote. He joined the party after defecting from the PDP.
Now what do the numbers say about the candidates and their chances?
Fixing an Ailing Economy: Obi’s Forte
With an election campaign premised on messages designed around “Route to take Nigeria from consumption to production”, Peter Obi’s campaign is expectedly resonating with Nigeria’s middle class and urban-dwelling, digitally compliant younger generation. The reasons are not far-fetched: Nigeria’s major economic indicators are quite grim.
Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product grew by 3.11 per cent in the first quarter of 2022, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Although the NBS said the economy showed “…a sustained positive growth for six consecutive quarters since the recession witnessed in 2020,” the growth was still quite insignificant in the context of Nigeria’s economic potential. Take, for instance, GDP performances under the various leaders Nigeria has had since 1999.