“We wish him the pleasant unease of every head that wears the crown.”
This was the last wish for President Tinubu in the third in the series last October.
With a recent subtle call for a coup to unseat President Bola Tinubu and the blockade of food southwards of the country both from Niger State, our forecast of the troubles ahead of Tinubu as the country’s head calls for more attention this time.
As foreseen, the coup option suggests an extrajudicial, sorry, post-judicial trial of his government’s legitimacy while the food blockade southwards is an extra-constitutional response to the 3 issues we raised surrounding his legacy: food insecurity, general insecurity, and inter-ethnic security.
“Tinubu’s extemporaneous and extraneous mix of words revealed 3 troubles that were top of his subconscious mind: food insecurity, general insecurity, and interethnic insecurities,” we noted.
On his legitimacy, we observed that “Beyond Tinubu’s victory at the court, the conduct of INEC in this election attracted the least number of petitions since the 2003 elections.”
To his legacy, we reached into Tinubu’s pre-election subconscious mind to fetch his first concern, food security, followed by his other inheritance, general insecurity and inter-ethnic strife.
At this time, we represent our analyses of these three issues that still threaten Tinubu’s legacy today in hope that all stakeholders in and out of the government, and at all levels, consider for relieving the trouble on Tinubu’s head, and the weight borne on the people’s shoulders.
Enjoy this excerpt from the first two editions.
Legacy
A manifesto is a candidate’s desired legacy.
Ideally, it contains a candidate’s pact with the people – what they intend to do and how they want to be remembered differently from the other parties or candidates.
However, often in Nigeria, incumbent political officeholders go clearly off the markings of their campaign manifesto. Thus, people no longer trust political manifestos.
Yet, one interesting thing about Tinubu’s campaign speeches was that he spoke many times off the cuff and off the point. But the good thing about those slurred, sleepy slow-mo speeches was that they could be trusted more than the contrived manifestos. If he had evil intentions, he could have unknowingly let them out in those semi-conscious, sleep-deprived states he found himself on the campaign train many times.
So, in a way, it’s okay to measure Nigeria’s President-elect based on what he said from his subconscious mind during his campaigns, even more than when he was conscious as a politician.
Tinubu’s extemporaneous and extraneous mix of words revealed 3 troubles that were top of his subconscious mind: food insecurity, general insecurity, and interethnic insecurities.
Food Insecurity
“What will they eat? 😋
“Corn, agabado, ewa, 🌽🍲🥘🥔 and yam in the afternoon…,” Senator Tinubu, a senior citizen, obviously defying his need to recuperate fully after surgery, spoke on, struggling for coherence during his speech at the 12th Bola Tinubu Colloquium in Kano.
Sadly, the joke is on us, not on the septuagenarian.
Why? Nigeria ranks last globally, 113th among 113 countries, regarding food affordability, according to the Economist’s Food Security Index for 2022.
Food security is measured in 4 main divisions: Affordability, Availability, Quality and Safety, and Sustainability and Adaptation.
The country’s aggregate food security score is 42, among the bottom 6 countries globally. A score of 0 is the worst, while 100 is the best.
Several factors could be responsible for Nigeria’s food insecurity. One is that, since the return to democracy in 1999 till 2020, the average population growth rate of 2.7% exceeded the food production growth rate of 2.6%.
The Economist observed, “While Nigeria’s performance in most categories has improved over the 11-year (Global Food Security Index) GFSI reporting period, a decrease of -22.2 in its score in (food) Affordability has led to a decline of 0.9 points in its overall score in the index.
“Deteriorating (food) affordability scores have been driven by 1.1) Change in average food costs and 1.5) Food safety-net programmes, which saw major respective declines in scores of 49 and 53.7 points.
“Indicators that have seen improvement, albeit at low levels, include a 47.6-point increase in 3.2) Nutritional standards (due to the implementation of a national nutrition plan and nutrition labelling), a 44.1-point increase in 2.3) farm infrastructure, and a 33-point increase in 4.5) political commitment to adaptation.
President-Elect Bola Ahmed Tinubu may need consider the country’s strengths and opportunities for action, as advised by the Economist:
“Nigeria’s performance showcases its strengths in existing nutritional standards and micronutrient availability, highlighting strong nutritional value and safety of food.
“The country also does well to limit the volatility of agricultural production (as seen in the yearly fluctuations in the ‘FOOD INSECURITY’ Chart above). On the other hand, Nigeria’s performance in the index highlights that there remain multiple areas for action to enhance the food security environment in the country.
Nigeria’s Food Security: Strengths and opportunities for action
“Making food more affordable is a top priority, given the weak index performance, and developing food safety-net programmes is an important task ahead. For the broader environment of food security, developing a food security policy and establishing a food security agency”
Why they often don’t eat?
Beyond these general suggestions, Dataphyte notes that food insecurities emanate from general insecurities such as conflicts.