Data Dive

On Legitimacy and Legacy: Tinubu’s head and Troubles ahead

By Oluseyi Olufemi

March 25, 2023

Uneasy lies the head that wears the crown 👑 until the crown is removed.

In the past 8 years, General Muhammadu Buhari wore Nigeria’s presidential crown. In that period, whenever any Nigerian collapsed under the country’s ignoble cross, it was Buhari’s name that they cursed for forcefully diverting their paths from their noble cause.

As young and old farmers fled their homesteads to escape slaughter with the herds and other Nigerians sold all they had to escape the country’s mental horrors, it was Buhari’s name they bid farewell to as they departed.

Also, in the past 8 weeks, Governor Godwin Emefiele of the Central Bank was responsible for detaining people’s bank cash savings. Humbled big men and proud beggars found themselves in queues pleading for cash inside or outside the banks 🥺.

Not anymore.

From now on, everyone will hold Bola Ahmed Tinubu for every problem Nigerians would have, for every trading loss or job loss, bad debt or wrongful death, at least for the next 48 months.

But, like his predecessors, he does not deserve praise for every progress, every profitable business or gainful job, or for every live birth or death in old age. Only the people deserve such recognition for the good, the governors deserve blame for the bad, and the President hanged for the ugly.

That is the weight of the crown that Tinubu, Atiku, Obi, and others longed to wear all their lives.

Unfortunately, Tinubu’s head is now set to wear the heavy crown🤴🏿, regardless of the troubles ahead — no thanks to the people who voted him to the federal throne.

For instance, many supported the wreckless cashless policy overtly or covertly because they thought it might work against the APC and Tinubu’s chances at the elections. Tinubu and many of his party friends complained that the policy was ill-timed.

Yet, whether he likes it or not, Tinubu is expected to undo the damage of over N21 trillion countable loss to the economy and other uncountable losses the people suffered while Emefiele flailed and failed on the Naira, hard done by his perennially ailing calls at the CBN.

An examination of one of Tinubu’s recent speeches reveals the triple trouble on top of his subconscious mind – food insecurity, martial insecurity, and interethnic insecurities.

But before those three troubles, he must deal with at least 5 litigations challenging his victory at the February 25 Presidential polls.

If he scales that legal hurdle, he must then confront a 4-year-long moral battle to assert the legitimacy of his government nationally and internationally.

Legal actions ahead

The number of petitions so far against the conduct of the 2023 elections amounts to 505. These include 5 for the Presidential, 134 for Senatorial, and 366 for the House of Representatives.

Source: Kimpact Development Initiative

Barring other litigation that may arise from States with inconclusive elections, the number of election petitions for this year may be the least in 4 successive elections.

There were 560 election petitions in 2003. This number increased drastically to 1,290 in 2007 but dropped to 732 in 2011. There was another decrease in election petitions to 611 in 2015. This number decreased further by 17.3% to 505 in 2023 (as of the time of writing). This percentage decrease was more than 16.5% in 2015.

Legacy

A manifesto is a candidate’s desired legacy.

Ideally, it contains a candidate’s pact with the people – what they intend to do and how they want to be remembered differently from the other parties or candidates.

However, often in Nigeria, incumbent political officeholders go clearly off the markings of their campaign manifesto. Thus, people no longer trust political manifestos.

Yet, one interesting thing about Tinubu’s campaign speeches was that he spoke many times off the cuff and off the point. But the good thing about those slurred, sleepy slow-mo speeches was that they could be trusted more than the contrived manifestos. If he had evil intentions, he could have unknowingly let them out in those semi-conscious, sleep-deprived states he found himself on the campaign trail many times.

So, in a way, it’s okay to measure Nigeria’s President-elect based on what he said from his subconscious mind during his campaigns, even more than when he was conscious as a politician.

Tinubu’s extemporaneous and extraneous mix of words revealed 3 troubles that were top of his subconscious mind: food insecurity, general insecurity, and interethnic insecurities.

Food Insecurity

What will they eat? 😋

“Corn, agabado, ewa, 🌽🍲🥘🥔 and yam in the afternoon…” Senator Tinubu, a senior citizen, obviously defying his need to recuperate fully after surgery, spoke on, struggling for coherence during his speech at the 12th Bola Tinubu Colloquium in Kano.

Sadly, the joke is on us, not on the septuagenarian.

Why? Nigeria ranks last globally, 113th among 113 countries, regarding food affordability, according to the Economist’s Food Security Index for 2022.

Food security is measured in 4 main divisions: Affordability, Availability, Quality and Safety, and Sustainability and Adaptation.

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