His Northern Muslim Grade and Southern Middle Ground
“Never show your anger. Tell nothing of yourself”, Pippi de Lena told his son, Cross, in the 1997 film, The Last Don.
If there’s one political don that’s lived up to this word in his fourth and likely last contest for Nigeria’s presidency, it is the Adamawa-born former Vice-President, Abubakar Atiku.
He’s taken Governor Wike and the G5’s slight in his strides, even to the point of retreating from the PDP presidential campaign in Rivers State.
From Dataphyte’s maths of the voting outcomes, Atiku’s path to the Presidency may be as narrow as a needle’s eye, but those who underestimate the ageing Don, like the Santadrios did the ageing Don Clericuzio, do so at their peril.
Last week we predicted that Atiku would come second with 30.19% of the total vote cast, after Tinubu’s 33.34%. We also calculated that Peter Obi would come third with 27.02% of the votes.
Recall we based the predictions on 3 factors that influence voter choice in Nigeria: religion, ethnicity and party structure. In this new scenario, we made a slight allowance for a fourth factor – a candidate’s popularity – regarding Peter Obi.
However, Dataphyte’s research team discovered that Abubakar Atiku might wriggle through to the presidency this time if only he plays the religious card better than Tinubu in the country’s northwest and northeast to lead Tinubu in the first instance of an inconclusive election. We call this Scenario 2.
Scenario 2: Atiku’s narrow passage to the Presidency
Atiku has competed in the Presidential race 4 times. He knows the pain of losing. But he’s learnt the mistakes of losers.
First, Atiku emerged as the PDP candidate from an unlikely party primary at the National Stadium, Abuja, where he defied the expected power shift to the south. He floored the overconfident Nyesom Wike, the Rivers State governor, using a last-minute manoeuvre from Tambuwal’s camp.
When the Party Chairman, Iyorchia Ayu, lauded this successful putsch against Wike and others, he didn’t only reveal himself as an unbiased umpire, he revealed Atiku Abubakar’s capacity for deft undercover manoeuvre.
However, beyond his hard-won PDP primaries, Atiku faces Bola Tinubu on the one hand and Peter Obi on the other. But Tinubu appears to be Atiku’s arch-nemesis at the February 25 general elections.
Recently, Dino Melaye, a prominent member of the Atiku camp launched an offensive against Tinubu’s religious credentials. There have been reports that Tinubu is a nominal Muslim, with calls to Muslims to refrain from voting for him.
The danger of this offensive on Tinubu’s prospects in the election was not lost on Muslim Rights Concern (MURIC), a religious organisation headed by Professor Ishaq Akintola.
“This is where Dino is going. His message was meant to be digested by Nigerian Muslims. That is why it is MURIC’s business to tackle him. He appears to be saying, ‘Drop Tinubu, He is not Muslim enough. Stop following him. My principal is a better Muslim’, the Professor said in an official statement.
Dataphyte measured the effect of stripping Tinubu of his religious advantage in the core northern parts of the country on his election outcome and found out that it could lead to an inconclusive presidential election in the first instance, with a run-off that would likely favour Atiku than Tinubu.
In scenario 2, Atiku would lead with 31.62% of votes, Tinubu would come second with 30.20% and Obi coming third still with 28.28%.
Furthermore, the number of states that Tinubu could have won would plummet from 22 to 13, possibly tying with Atiku’s 13 and edging above Obi’s possible wins of 11 states.
However, even in this unfortunate situation, only Bola Tinubu is still projected to win at least 25% of votes in 26 states.
The moment Atiku’s total votes exceed Tinubu’s in the first instance, even though he may not have a sufficient 25% of the votes in 24 states, he is likely to win the race in the run-off election.
That is when he’ll flip the ace card – his south south Igbo Christian Vice President pick – Ifeanyi Okowa, the Delta State Governor.
Editor’s Note: “This report has been updated to reflect corrections to the name of a source”