According to the timetable released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the governorship election in Bayelsa State is set to take place on November 11, 2023. This election will be the state’s 8th gubernatorial election since the return to democracy in 1999.
In this year’s election, there are only 16 candidates vying for the governorship position. This number represents a significant reduction compared to the 2019 contest, which had 45 governorship candidates. The reduction in the number of candidates this year amounts to a 64% decrease.
Out of the 16 candidates competing for the top position in Bayelsa State, only two are female. It is important to note that neither of the major political parties, the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), fielded a female candidate. This significantly reduces the possibility of a female governor emerging in the state, considering that the state has predominantly voted for candidates from these leading parties in previous elections.
Bayelsa State, located in the South-South geopolitical zone of Nigeria, was created from the neighboring Rivers State and officially became a state on October 1, 1996. The state has only 8 Local Government Areas (LGAs), which is the lowest number among all states in the country.
So far, Bayelsa State has conducted seven governorship elections, with PDP dominating the political landscape by winning all the gubernatorial elections held in the oil-rich state. One may say the PDP has faced little competition from other parties in the past.
However, in the 2019 election, the PDP faced a significant challenger. A total of 45 candidates contested for the governorship position in the state, but the main contest was between Diri Duoye of the PDP and Lyon David of the All Progressives Congress (APC). In the end, the APC candidate, Lyon David, received 352,552 votes, defeating Duoye Diri of the PDP, who received 143,172 votes.
Lyon was, however, removed as the governor-elect a day before his swearing-in by the court due to the submission of forged credentials to INEC. Diri, the candidate of the PDP who came in second place, was then sworn in as the governor and has since been managing the affairs of the state. He is also among the 16 candidates competing for the governorship in the upcoming 2023 governorship election.
According to the final list of candidates recently released by INEC, 14 male candidates are vying for the state’s top position, while only two are female. Similarly, there are only two female candidates running for the deputy governorship position. In the previous election, there were 14 governorship candidates with female deputy candidates, and three females contested as governorship candidates.
Out of the 16 candidates, the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) has fielded the oldest candidate at 66 years old, while the candidate from the Action Peoples Party (APP) is the youngest in the race at 35 years old. The average age of the governorship candidates is 47.3 years.
For the deputy governorship position, the Labour Party (LP) has the oldest candidate at 64 years old, while the Action Alliance (AA) has the youngest candidate at 35 years old. The average age for deputy governorship candidates is also 47.3 years.
Regarding voter participation, the state has shown a relatively high turnout. Data shows that in 2012, the state had 591,870 registered voters. On the election day, 79% of registered voters participated by casting their votes.
In the subsequent election, the number of registered voters increased to 654,493. However, there was a decline in the voter turnout.
During the 2019 election, the state had 922,562 registered voters, and on the day of the election, more than half of the registered voters participated by casting their votes. Although this turnout showed an improvement compared to the 2015 election, it was still lower than the voter turnout recorded in 2012.
Beyond the governorship election, the state has shown considerable interest in the presidential elections in the state as well.
However, this enthusiasm was particularly evident in the 2011 and 2015 elections when Goodluck Jonathan, who is from Bayelsa State, ran for the presidency of the country. In the last two presidential elections, where Jonathan was not a candidate, the state experienced a decline in voter turnout.
A previous report by Dataphyte, analyzing past election data, highlighted that regions tend to have higher voter turnout when the presidential candidate hails from that area. This may explain the downward trend observed in the voter turnout in Bayelsa State during the 2019 and, more recently, the 2023 presidential elections.
While the PDP emerged as the winner in the 2023 presidential election in Bayelsa State, various factors, including the outcome of the 2019 governorship election, the candidate fielded by the APC this year, and the emergence of a “third force” in the political landscape, may introduce some dynamics to the upcoming November 11 election. In other words, the contest may not be as straightforward for the PDP as it had been between 1999 and 2015. The ultimate outcome will be determined by the little above 1 million registered voters who have collected their Permanent Voters Card (PVC) in the state.