AHEAD of the 2023 general election, a coalition of 10 civil society organisations (CSOs), including Dataphyte, has identified 22 high-risk states that election stakeholders in the country and well-meaning Nigerians should pay closer attention to.
This information is disclosed in the first “Election Manipulation Risk Index (EMRI)” report, which the 10 CSOs released on Friday, January 27, 2023. The CSOs explained that the EMRI heavily relied on observation, content analysis, and expert interviews from which conclusions and rankings of the states were drawn.
The EMRI is an evidence-based tool designed to curb election manipulation and promote citizens’ oversight of the electoral process.
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The ranking of the 22 high-risk states and others that fall either as medium- or low-risk states was done using the six variables, each with sub-indicators, as shown in the table below.
The report identifies any state with three or more of the variables above as high-risk, while a state with two variables is categorised as medium-risk. Any state with one or no variables is considered low-risk.
Out of the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), 22 are classified as high-risk states as they have the presence of three or more variables. All five of the South-Eastern states have been classified as high-risk states. Only two states, Rivers and Akwa-Ibom, fall into this category in the South-South region.
In South-West Nigeria, Lagos, Oyo, Osun, and Ekiti are spotlighted as high-risk states. In the North-Central, three states also make the list.
Save for Kebbi and Zamfara, all the states in the North-West region are classified as high-risk. Only Bauchi and Taraba fall into this category in the North-East region.
The EMRI shows that 12 states recorded two variables and thus are classified as medium-risk states. They include Borno and Yobe in the North-East region; Nasarawa, Benue and Kogi in the North-Central; as well as Zamfara and Kebbi in the North-West.
Edo, Delta, Bayelsa, and Cross River fall under this category in the South-South. In the South-West, only Ogun State makes the list.
The three low-risk states are Gombe, Ondo, and the FCT. This implies that they have the presence of one or zero variables. The FCT recorded zero variables. Simply put, the nation’s capital has no presence of the six variables examined in the EMRI. On the other hand, Gombe and Ondo have the presence of election litigation and voter suppression, respectively.
While all states with three or more variables are classified as high-risk, Anambra, Imo, Kaduna, Kano, and Lagos are to be monitored keenly as they have five out of the six variables examined in the report.
Abia, Ebonyi, Jigawa, Katsina, and Rivers, are next with four out of the six variables.
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