On May 26, 2022, Governor Bello Matawalle of Zamfara state emerged as the Governorship candidate of the All Progress Congress (APC) for the 2023 election.
Mattawale was first elected as the Governor of Zamfara state in 2019 under the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) following the ruling of the Supreme court, which voided all votes cast for the APC in the election.
In June 2021, Mattawale announced his defection to APC and has presided over the affairs of the state for the past three and half years.
The people of Zamfara state will head to the polls on March 11, 2023, to decide who gets their mandate for another four years; Mattawale of the APC or any of the 13 other Governorship candidates.
As part of Dataphyte’s series on the appraisal of states’ and their governor’s performance, in this article, we examine some critical socio-economic indicators in Zamfara state and how they have fared under the leadership of Governor Bello Mattawale.
GDP, IGR & Fiscal Strength
GDP
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced in a specific country or region over time. It gives information about the size of the region’s economy and how the economy is performing.
The sub-national GDP data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in 2012 shows that Zamfara had an estimated GDP of $4.123 billion, the second lowest in the North West region and 10th among the 36 states.
While no subnational GDP data has been published by the NBS since 2012 for an assessment of the state’s GDP growth, particularly under the Bello Matawalle administration, the 2022 State of States report by BudgIT puts the current GDP of Zamfara state at N1.73 trillion. The state now ranks as the 4th state with the smallest GDP in the country, six places above its 10th position in 2012. It also has the lowest GDP among its peers in the North West.
IGR
The Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) of a state also reveals information about the state’s economic performance. According to economists, the ability of a state to drive sustainable economic activities, such as boosting employment and providing efficient public service, is often shown in the independent revenue it can generate. So how much did the Matawalle administration generate?
The IGR data from NBS shows that Zamfara state, under the leadership of Bello Matawalle, has recorded positive growth in its internal revenue. From N15.42 billion in 2019 to N18.98 billion in 2021. Even with the coronavirus in 2020 that affected the revenue of many states, Zamfara still recorded positive growth in its IGR.
On a per capita basis, Zamfara state has an IGR of N3,582. Although the state has the third largest IGR per capita in the North West region, it is less than the national IGR per capita average of N7,944.
Further analysis of the state’s revenue shows that despite an increase in the state’s internal revenue, FAAC disbursement still accounts for a significant portion of the state’s income.
In the period under review, Zamfara had a total combined revenue of N182.16 billion from IGR and FAAC. IGR accounted for 29.04 per cent of this figure, while FAAC made up 70.96 per cent. This shows that, like many other states in the country, Zamfara is still heavily dependent on FAAC allocations for its survival.
Whoever emerges as the state’s next governor must consider exploring more revenue options to boost its IGR and reduce its overreliance on FAAC allocation. This is crucial because, as pointed out in a previous report, a state’s heavy reliance on FAAC disbursement exposes its spending plans to risks from the volatility associated with crude oil prices, which make up a considerable chunk of federally collected revenue.
Furthermore, the National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited has recently failed to remit funds into the federation account.
Fiscal Sustainability
In the latest state fiscal sustainability ranking by BudgIT, Zamfara state ranked poorly. Annually, BudgIT ranks the fiscal strength of the 36 states in the country using several indexes. In the 2022 ranking, the four indexes used include a state’s ability to cover its operating costs with only its IGR, its ability to cover all its operating expenses and loan repayment obligations without borrowing, its debt sustainability, and the prioritisation of capital over recurrent expenditures.
Putting all of these indices together, Zamfara ranked 25th out of the 36 states in the 2022 fiscal performance ranking. This was a drop from its 11th position in the 2021 ranking and 16th position in 2020. Although Zamfara ranked as the third-best-performing state in the North West region in 2022, data shows that there has been a steady decline in the state’s fiscal performance in recent times. Plans to improve the state’s fiscal sustainability should be a significant concern for the 14 candidates vying to be the state’s next Governor.
The Governorship candidates must also include in their manifestos plans to reduce the state’s debt, particularly its domestic debt, which has seen a considerable increase since 2019.
At the end of 2019, the state had a total domestic debt of N70.84 billion. This increased to N98.02 billion in 2020 and N99.94 billion in 2021, making it the 15th state with the highest domestic debt in the country and the second highest in the North West region.
Its foreign debt obligations have, however, declined. It fell from $32.52 million in 2019 to $31 million in 2021. With this, the state has the fifth lowest foreign debt in the federation and second lowest among its peers in the North West region. However, it has the fifth-highest debt service figure in the country. These indices should concern the candidates, especially whoever emerges as the winner of the March gubernatorial polls.
Unemployment Rate
One of Bello Matawalle’s promises to the people of Zamfara state in 2019 was to create job opportunities, especially for the youth. Specifically, promised to create 25,000 jobs for the youth through technological innovation and production.
In 2019 the Governor also announced plans to recruit 8,000 workers into the civil service. At different times the state government also announced employment opportunities in the state.
These various recruitments may have yielded positive results, as data shows a decline in the state’s unemployment rate.
Before Bello Matawalle took office as the governor, the state had an employment rate of 17.98 per cent (i.e., those in the labour force who did nothing at all and those who worked less than 20 hours in a week) and ranked as the second state in the North West region with the lowest unemployment rate. Among the 36 states, it was 8th.
The latest (Q4 2020) labour force statistics by NBS show that the state now has an unemployment rate of 12.99 per cent, the lowest in the North West and third-lowest nationally.
While the reduction in the state’s unemployment rate is commendable, it is important for the candidates to include strategies to maintain the low unemployment rate and also work at further reducing it.
Poverty Rate
Among others, poverty is one of Nigeria’s major challenges and has become a point of promise for politicians every election cycle. It was the same for Matawalle as he assured the people of Zamfara state that his government would address the high poverty rate in the state.
According to the data from NBS, in 2019, the state had a poverty headcount ratio of 73.98 per cent, making it the sixth state with the highest poverty rate in the country. The NBS used an actual per capita expenditure of N137,430 per year (or N376.50 per day) to determine the poverty rate.
In November 2019, Matawalle launched the Zamfara Social Intervention Programme to address the state’s high poverty rate. According to him, the programme was designed primarily to reduce poverty and idleness among the youth in the state.
Well, the National Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) report released by NBS in 2022, which measured the poverty rate on three dimensions — health, education, and living standards, shows that 78 per cent of the state’s population is living in multidimensional poverty. Put differently, Zamfara now has a poverty rate of 78 per cent, up from 73.98 per cent in 2019.
With this, Zamfara currently ranks as the 10th state in Nigeria and third in the North West geopolitical zone that houses the highest number of people living in multidimensional poverty. Given the increase in the state’s poverty rate, this should form a critical part of the manifestos of the governorship candidates, especially as poverty has been identified as one of the major triggers of violence and insecurity in the state.
Number of Out-of-School Children
In 2018, Zamfara was the 8th state with the highest number of out-of-school children in Nigeria, totalling 422,213. Boys accounted for 60.86 per cent of the out-of-school children in the state, while girls make up 39.14 per cent.
To address this issue, in 2020, the state government partnered with the United Nations International Children’s Education Fund (UNICEF) to improve school enrollment of children to reduce the rate of out-of-school children in the state.
The NBS has released no new data to assess the performance of Matawalle on this indicator accurately; nonetheless, it is critical for the Governorship candidates to develop policies that would address the high rate of out-of-school children and improve access to education in the state, particularly now that UNESCO has revealed that the number of out-of-school children in Nigeria has increased to 20 million, up from an estimated 10 million in 2018.
Ease of Doing Business Ranking
The business climate is among the many things investors consider before choosing an investment destination in a country or state.
Although Governor Bello Matawalle of Zamfara state has stated several times that the state is safe and has a conducive business environment, the latest subnational ease of doing business ranking by the Presidential Enabling Business Environment Council (PEBEC) shows the contrary.
According to the PEBEC ranking, which was done on four thematic areas — Infrastructure and Security, Transparency and Access to Information, Regulatory Environment, and Workforce Readiness, Zamfara state has the worst business environment in Nigeria. Out of the index score of 10, the state scored only 3.54 and ranked as the 37th state out of the 36 states and FCT on ease of doing business.
To improve the state’s business climate, whoever becomes the next chief executive officer of the state would need to embark on reforms, particularly around these four thematic areas.
Under-5 Mortality Rate & Access to Health
Under-5 mortality is the probability of a child dying between birth and the fifth birthday. In 2018, the under-5 mortality rate in Nigeria was 132 per 1,000 live births.
According to the data from NBS, Zamfara state had an under-5 mortality rate of 130 per 1,000 live births, the lowest in the North West region.
The Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey released last year puts the state’s current under-5 mortality rate at 136 death per 1000 live birth. This shows an increase from the 2018 record of 130 per 1,000.
More work still needs to be done because, beyond the rise in its under-5 mortality rate, the state is far from the average rate of 62 deaths per 1,000 live births for 13 selected Lower-Middle-Income Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Likewise, the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) target 20 per 1,000 live births.
Subnational Audit Efficacy Index
In 2021, the Paradigm Leadership Support Initiative (PLSI) used public audits to rate the 36 states’ management and their usage of public finances based on their level of accountability and openness. Six criteria, as shown in the table below, six criteria form the basis of the assessment.
Zamfara scored 44 out of 100 and ranked 34th out of the 36 states assessed. The state’s performance in 2021 was a steep fall from its 2020 ranking when it came first place. Whoever emerges as the state’s next Governor will need to implement policies that would enhance transparency and accountability in the state, particularly in its management of public finances.
Open Data Compliance
Another critical indicator is Zamfara state’s level of open data compliance using the World Bank’s State Fiscal Transparency, Accountability, and Sustainability (SFTAS) project standards.
The SFTAS project commenced in 2018. It was designed to strengthen transparency and accountability at the sub-national level. It provides grants to states based on indices that include the openness of fiscal transparency and accountability data — including procurement, audit reports, budgets, and implementation of e-procurement systems, among other things.
As of October 2021, Zamfara and 25 other states were reported to have keyed into the project and created their open contracting portals where they publish their contracting data to foster transparency.
Checks by Dataphyte show that the state has published some of its contracting data. However, the publication is inconsistent. The last contracting data the state published on its website was on July 13, 2021. This indicates that the state hasn’t been fully compliant in making its procurement data available to the public.
Even though the SFTAS project ended in 2022, the person who emerges as the next governor should commit to providing up-to-date information on the open contracting portal, as this would improve transparency in the state’s procurement process.
Local Government Election
Nigeria operates a federal system of government with three tiers — the federal, state, and local governments.
Ideally, these three government tiers should function as independent entities. However, the local government, often called government at the grassroots, has somewhat become an extension of the state government. Some state governors sometimes dismiss or dissolve elected local government council members. In other cases, they would refuse to conduct new elections for months or years.
Recently, there have been various arguments about the autonomy of local governments. Still, every attempt to grant them autonomy has met with vehement opposition from state Governors who assert the right to exercise close oversight over them. Although we cannot accurately ascertain the level of local government autonomy in the state, the Matawalle administration held a local government election in 2019 and a bye-election in 2020.
Although these are not an exhaustive list of the socio-economic indicators in the state, the ones highlighted in this article form a significant portion of essential development indices and provide the residents of Zamfara state metrics first to assess the performance of Matawalle in his first term. Also, it serves as a guide for the electorates in choosing their next Governor among the 14 candidates.