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A Half Empty World
Apart from the effects of migration, many countries in the world are predicted to have a population decline of over 50% in 2100, due to a general decline in the number of children women give birth to, otherwise known as the fertility rate.
A decline in the fertility rate initially results in having more working-age people, especially women in the labour force, which leads to economic productivity and a temporary ‘demographic dividend’.
However, in countries with fertility rates below the replacement level, there will be more elderly people (an age group considered dependent and less productive) and fewer working adults, which leads to less economic productivity.
Global fertility rates have declined from 4.8 births per woman in 1970 to 2.3 in 2020.
The major factors that contributed to the declining fertility rate include family planning policies, infertility prevalence in both men and women, gender equity, education levels, and delayed childbirth (both voluntary and involuntary), among others.
At the inter-continental level, African women give birth to more children than those in other continents. On average, an African woman gives birth to over 4 children as of 2021. Women in other continents give birth to 2 or less children.
Yet, Nigerian women bear more children than the average African woman. Nigerian women give birth to over 5 children.
Nigeria’s fertility rates also exceed the average for countries in the least developed regions of the world.
At the sub-continental level, however, women in Central Africa give birth to the most children, followed by their peers in West Africa.
Only Northern African and Southern African women give birth to 3 or less children. The rest give birth to 4 or more children.
Over time, high fertility rates as is obtainable in Nigeria always lead to low productivity, but current trends show that it could go either way depending on women’s access to education and the existence of policies that encourage women to work while they run their families.
According to the IMF, “Despite a continued negative income-fertility relationship in low-income countries (particularly in sub-Saharan Africa), it has largely disappeared both within and across high-income countries.”
This shows that Sub-Saharan countries like Nigeria too can make the best gains from fertility rates if their women give birth to a moderate number of children, and have sufficient education and mother-friendly workplace policies that enable them to maintain productive careers as well.
Half-Empty Male Pouches
The male fertility rate has also been reduced by 50%, furthering the possibility of a half-full world by 2100, several studies show.
Between 1973 and 2018, the average male Total Sperm Count (TSC) reduced from 101.2 million per ml to 49 million per ml, showing a 51.6% decline in male fertility rate.