In 2019, Babajide Sanwo-Olu emerged as the governor of Lagos State in what could be described as an easy ride. Besides polling 75.65 percent of the total votes cast, he won with a wide margin in the state’s 20 local government areas.
While the March 18 contest could have been a walkover for Sanwo-Olu and his party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), given the benefit of history and hindsight, what played out in the state in the February 25 presidential and National Assembly elections has altered the political equations in the $136 billion economy.
Following the postponement of the 2023 governorship election from March 11 to 18, Lagosians will head to the polls to choose their next governor. Although there are 16 candidates vying for the highest office in the state, the contest appears like a three-horse race, unlike the last two guber elections which were two-horse races.
The 2015 and 2019 Lagos State governorship elections were largely contested between the APC and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), with the former winning in both elections irrespective of the candidate they fielded.
However, this time, the politics seems different with the emergence of the Labour Party (LP), which is now pulling its weight in the state owing to a surprise victory in the 2023 presidential election. Also, for the first time in three election cycles, the PDP is fielding a different candidate.
How APC fared in the 2015 and 2019 governorship elections
In 2015, the Lagos State governorship election was mainly between Akinwunmi Ambode, the standard bearer of the APC, and Jimi Agbaje of the PDP. The keenly contested election ended in the favour of Ambode, who polled 811,994 votes to defeat Agbaje, who scored 659,788 votes.
Out of the 20 LGAs in the state, available data show that APC won in 14, while PDP won in only 6.
In 2019, APC fielded Babajide Sanwo-Olu, while Jimi Agbaje was still the candidate for the PDP. The APC won overwhelmingly in all 20 LGAs with a total vote of 739,445, while PDP polled 206,141 votes. Unlike in 2015, the PDP did not win any of the LGAs in the Lagos State governorship election.
The party’s victory is not only limited to the state’s governorship elections alone. In the 2015 and 2019 presidential elections, the APC also won in the state. The majority of the federal lawmakers who represented the state in the 8th and 9th assemblies were from the party as well.
In the 8th National Assembly, PDP had only six House of Reps seats, while APC had 21 seats. In the 9th Assembly, PDP’s seat dropped to three, while APC had the rest. Even in the state house of assembly, APC lawmakers dominated the house. In the February 15, 2023 elections, the APC cleared the three Senate seats and won 20 out of the 24 House of Representatives seats in Lagos State. These factors make the state an APC state.
However, the Labour Party won the presidential election in the state, which could play a pivotal role in Saturday’s governorship election.
2023 presidential election in Lagos and Sanwo-Olu’s chances
For the first time in three general election cycles in Nigeria, APC was defeated in a presidential election in Lagos State. The party polled a total of 572,606 votes, while LP, a third force, polled 582,454 votes to win the state in the 2023 presidential election. The PDP, on the other hand, scored only 75,750 votes.
In 2019, the APC won the state with a total of 580,825 votes. The ruling party won in 15 LGAs, while PDP, which scored 448,015 votes, won in only five LGAs. The presidential candidate of the LP in the 2019 election, Usman Muhammed, scored only 110 votes.
However, in the 2023 election, the politics in the state took a drastic turn as the APC won in only 10 LGAs in Lagos State while LP grabbed the other 10 LGAs. The PDP did not win any.
APC woos voters
Although the outcome of a presidential election may not necessarily determine the direction of a state governorship election, the defeat of APC presidential candidate, Bola Tinubu, in Lagos State, his political base, in the February 25 election has somewhat rattled party members in the state. After the result of the Lagos State presidential election was announced, the APC youth leader, Dayo Israel, put out a tweet charging all the party’s stakeholders in the state to be humble and get off their high horses to ensure the re-election of Sanwo-Olu.
As it stands, the 57-year-old governor of the state, Sanwo-Olu, will battle it out with the 40-year-old LP governorship candidate, Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour (GRV), and his PDP counterpart, Abdul-Azeez Olajide Adediran (Jandor)
The APC has been desperate to win the March 18 guber election, with some videos of alleged members of the party threatening those who will not vote for Sanwo-Olu to stay at home or leave the state.
According to a report, members of the APC state executive council and chieftains of APC have been directed to embark on door-to-door campaigns to canvass votes from residents and aggrieved party members in order to ensure the party’s victory.
“We have embarked on door-to-door to appeal to residents on the need to come out en-masse and vote for APC. We have been to Agege, Ojo, Badagry, Alimosho, Ikeja, Apapa, Kosofe, Ibeju-Lekki, among others,” Chief of Staff to Sanwo-Olu, Tayo Ayinde, said.
While no one cannot say with certainty the impact these last-minute actions will make, the supporters of the LP in the state, popularly known as Obidients, have vowed to come out en masse to vote for their governorship candidate just like they did for their presidential candidate, Peter Obi, who defeated the APC candidate in the state.
Politics of tribe, ancestry
Political opponents have speculated that Rhodes-Vivour is Igbo because his wife and mother are Igbo. But the LP candidate and his father have dismissed that. Igbo is one of the three major ethnic groups in Nigeria, others being Hausa/Fulani and Yoruba.
“I am a Lagos boy, an Omo Eko Proper, no doubt. To those doubting my Yoruba pedigree, I advise you to read Lagos history. Our stellar contributions to the development of Lagos as foremost legal luminaries and judges from the 1800s such as Steven Bankole Rhodes, to my uncle, the Supreme Court Judge, Bode Rhodes-Vivour and my father, Barrister Olawale Rhodes –Vivour, a lawyer, are there,” Rhodes-Vivour said in one of his social media posts recently.
In the forthcoming election, the Igbo, the dominant ethnic group outside the Yorubas, will play a major role on who becomes the next Lagos State governor. The ethnic group was threatened in a 15-second video during the February 25 election, and the police said they would investigate the clip. They have also been threatened again, but many of them are adamant that they will vote for candidates of their choice.
Given the past elections history, the APC beleieves the majority of the group will not vote for the party. The beneficiary would have been PDP’s Jandor, but the emergence of the LP’s Rhodes-Vivour has altered the equation.
“We do not hate the APC, but we feel that we need a change. We pay taxes here and set up investments, which is the true meaning of patriotism. We have a right to make our choices. Many of those who are threatening us today in Lagos forgot that their kiths and kins are holding positions in the UK and the US, and no one has asked them to go because they are not British and American citizens,” a Lagos-based investment advisor, Joy Erugbe, said.
“In 2017, seven Nigerians won seven seats in the UK elections – three or four are Yoruba, others are Igbo and Bini. Nobody has asked them to go, but the game changes once it is Lagos,” he noted.
She blamed politicians for playing ethnic politics, urging Lagosians to remember that there would be life after elections.
A Lagos State resident, Haruna Isa, noted that ethic politics was dangerous, urging residents of the state not to allow politicians to set them against each other.
“We all intermarry, but once it is elections we go back to our prejudices. This should not be so because nobody knew their tribe when they were coming into the world. I am from Kaduna, but I could have been from Imo or Ogun. Why antagonise each other for something we had no control over?” he asked.
Analyst speaks
Speaking on the outcome of the possible presidential election in the state and how it would impact the governorship election, particularly the chances of the incumbent governor, a political analyst, Ademola Oni, said that the events that played out in the state in the presidential election would play a role in the governorship election. “It will make the contest a fierce one,” he said.
While Oni noted that the victory of LP in the presidential election might not translate into automatic victory in the governorship election, he stated that the “Obedient” wave, espeically in the state, was strong. He noted that it would not be a walkover for the APC as it was in the past governorship elections, adding that the chances of Sanwo-Olu winning was 50-50,
“If he wins, it will be with a slim margin,” he added.