Nigeria has conducted six general elections since 1999. Despite the increase in voter registration in the last two decades, voter turnout gradually declined from its 69% peak in 2003 to 35% in 2019, data from the Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA) shows.
Source: Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance
This shows that in the 2003 elections, out of every 20 persons who registered to vote, only 14 persons eventually voted. By the 2019 elections, the voter turnout had dipped to the lowest in Africa. Only 7 out of every 20 persons who registered to vote actually voted in Nigeria’s last election. That is 13 out of every 20 persons who registered to vote did not eventually vote.
Nigeria joined the community of sovereign nations on October 1 1960, after many years of colonial rule. Shortly after, the military forcefully took over the government, and ruled for a total of 29 years, with the people going to the ballot only thrice in between. The fourth national elections which took place in June 1993 was annulled, although it was judged both at local and international levels as the freest and fairest election ever held in the country.
Six years later, the country finally returned to civilian rule, The first election marking the new democratic era was held in 1999. Data revealed that a total of 57.93 million Nigerians registered to participate in the election. However, only 30 million people representing 52% turned out to cast their votes on election day.
Further analysis of the election data showed that, since the 1999 election, there has been a continuous increase in the number of registered voters, excluding the slight drop in 2015. Total registered voters in 1999 were 57.94 million.
This figure increased to 60.82 million in 2003, 61.57 million in 2007, 73.53 million in 2011, and 67.42 million in 2015. The number thereafter increased to 82.44 million in 2019.
Source: Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance
It is expected that with the increase in registered voters, the number of voters would also increase. However, data from IDEA revealed a contrary situation. Those who registered increased from 60.82 million in 2003 to 82.34 million in the 2019 elections. But the reverse was the case for those who voted. Those who actually voted in elections decreased consistently from 42.02 million in 2003 to 28.61 million in 2019.
| Year | No. of Registered Voters (millions) | No. of Vote Cast (Millions) | Percentage of Voter Turnout |
| 1999 | 57.94 | 30.28 | 52.26 |
| 2003 | 60.82 | 42.02 | 69.08 |
| 2007 | 61.57 | 35.43 | 57.54 |
| 2011 | 73.53 | 39.47 | 53.68 |
| 2015 | 67.42 | 29.43 | 43.65 |
| 2019 | 82.34 | 28.61 | 34.75 |
Source: Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance
Thus voter turnout declined consistently in the past five elections. The voter turnout dropped from 69.08% in 2003 to 34.75% in the last election in 2019. This indicates that only 7 out of 20 persons who registered in the 2019 election eventually voted.
Overall, the level of electoral participation in Nigeria’s general elections conducted since 1999 has been relatively low, with its 2019 voter turnout the lowest in Africa. With 658 days away from the forthcoming 2023 general elections, the country will need to adopt best practices and homegrown strategies that will encourage better voter turnout outcomes.