Nigeria has released a National Development Plan, designed to shape the country’s development between 2021 and 2025.
According to details released by the federal government, the plan aims to tackle certain challenges in the country and help the government’s plan of economic rejuvenation including alleviating poverty and strengthening industrialization.
Here are the top twenty development projections from Nigeria’s National Development Plan 2021 and 2025.
35 million Persons Out of Poverty, 21 Million New Full-Time Jobs by 2025
The plan aims to ensure that by 2025, 35 million people will be lifted out of poverty. According to the plan, the government aims to achieve this goal through accelerated, sustained, and inclusive economic growth, inclusive of social-protection initiatives.
21 million full-time jobs are also expected to be created.
According to the plan, key sectors such as Agriculture, Manufacturing, Trade, Oil, and Gas that ‘account’ for 60% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product will be revitalized for achieving stronger economic growth,
The government also promised to invest in key infrastructures such as physical, financial, digital, science, technology, and innovation.
Reduced Cost of Production for Oil Sector, Value Addition for Mineral Sector, Tourism
Inclusive in this plan is reduction of the cost of production for the Oil sector. This development is important given the high costs recorded for the production of crude oil and how it affects revenues due to the government. The plan also aims to ensure value for the Mineral sector of the country through the creation of linkages. The share of the Mineral sector to the country’s GDP is expected to grow to 3%. The total solid Minerals revenue is expected to grow to N20 billion while numbers of mining enterprises will grow to 8,100.
The Tourism sector is also expected to be of priority in the five-year plan.
To achieve this, the government promised to ensure infrastructural development that will aid the Tourism sector while also ensuring local asset maintenance and global marketing campaigns for the sector.
It was also noted that Tourism offices will be opened in states to identify Tourism opportunities and ensure that heritage sites are properly renovated and maintained.
The Tourism sector will benefit from N114.24 billion fund meant for the Creative sector and Tourism sector within the five years.
Integrating Informal Sector, Widening Tax Base
The government also prominently listed the informal sector as part of its plans. The plan stated that as part of measures to ensure diversifying the economy and improving revenue, the informal sector is key. The plan includes widening its tax net and improving the Tax to GDP ratio. The intention of the government may have already been kick started with the recent finance bill that widens the tax scope of the country.
Challenges such as lack of access to finance, high interest rates will be dealt with, and incentives to support business growth and expansion, expansion of existing business clusters in the country will be implemented.
Strengthening Security and Ensuring Good Governance
As part of its plan, the government has noted that it would address bottlenecks in delivering good governance through strict accountability as well as human and technological development. The government also promised to prioritize Education and Health Sectors. The government also promised to ensure Teachers’ training while strengthening Nigeria’s health sector service delivery capacity.
The government noted that providing key infrastructures and improving access to social services will help better the state of security in the country.
The country will also invest in Artificial Intelligence, Robotics, Drone Technology and Military science research to boost and enhance capacity.
Strengthening partnership between security operatives is also part of the strategy to improve the security situation.
The plan also aims to implement the Nigerian National Defence Policy and National Security Strategy.
The estimated public investment in National Security is expected to be N2.86 Trillion between 2021 to 2025.
Growing Real GDP, Increasing Private Investment and Public Investment Growth
According to the plan, Real GDP is expected to grow by 4.7%. The document noted that this will be a boost from a contraction of 1.92% which occurred due to the COVID-19 pandemic and decline in Oil prices.
The Real-GDP is defined as the inflation-adjusted price of goods and services produced in an economy within a given- year.
There is also an anticipated growth in private investment put at 5.1%. The government promised to ensure that critical infrastructure needed by the private sector to thrive will be provided. Private investments are companies that are not publicly traded. Public investments are critical infrastructures that are deemed important to national interests. They may be public assets or corporations/ publicly owned companies.
Increasing Capital Expenditures to 30%
The plan also revealed that the government will spend at least 30% of its expenditures on capital projects between 2021 and 2025. To this end, recurrent expenditure of the government will be sustained at optimal level while there would be efforts toward domestic resource mobilisation. This will include ensuring better non-oil revenues to help the country survive volatile oil prices.
Dropping Unemployment Rate to an Average 22.78%
According to the plan, unemployment is expected to average 22.78% in the five-year period.
The figures to watch out for are; 27.19% in 2021, 24.32% in 2022, 22.21% in 2023, 20.63% in 2024 and 19.56% in 2025.
According to the plan, the government will dedicate a minimum of 1% GDP to reversing the current unemployment trend of the country. Social protection for young, old and vulnerable is at the centre of the strategy.
Again, the country is banking on Cash transfers, incentives for business growth, expansion of existing industry clusters to achieve its aim.
Growing Federal Government Revenue to N25 Trillion by 2025
According to the National Development Plan, the country’s revenue is expected to hit 25 Trillion by 2025. According to the plan, the expected revenue breakdown over the 5-year period is as follows; N6.6 Trillion in 2021, N9.0 Trillion in 2022, N13.7 Trillion in 2023, N18.8 Trillion in 2024 and N25.4 Trillion in 2025.
Breaking down the figure further, in 2021 Oil sector will contribute N2.0 Trillion, Non-Oil including VAT pool will contribute N1.4 Trillion, independent and other revenue will contribute N3.1 Trillion.
In 2022, the breakdown is expected to be N2.4 Trillion for Oil sector, N2.0 Trillion for Non-Oil sector and N4.4 Trillion for independent and other revenue. The break-down for the 2023 figure is put at N2.6 Trillion for the Oil sector, N3.7 Trillion for the non-Oil sector and N7.3 Trillion for independent and other revenue.
In 2024 the breakdown is put at N2.6 Trillion for Oil sector, N5.6 Trillion for non-Oil sector and N10.5 Trillion for Independent and other revenue.
At the end of the plan, Oil sector will contribute N2.6 Trillion for the Oil sector, N8.1 for the Non-Oil sector, N14.6 Trillion for independent and other revenues.
Prioritising Rural Areas, Expanding Public Investment in Agricultural Sector to N1.46 Trillion
According to the government, there will be more commitment towards the Agricultural sector. It promises to commit N1.46 Trillion into the sector.
To achieve this, the government promises to develop rural areas by enhancing economic development and enhancing key infrastructures in the areas.
The plan also stated that the government will minimise disparity in development between rural and urban areas nationwide.
These are some key numbers to know. By 2025, there will be an increase by 20% on rural areas road networks. 75% of rural areas will have access to electricity. Unemployment in rural areas will drop to 20.2% while under-employment will drop to 23.3%.
Generation 10,000 Megawatts of Power by 2025
Nigeria’s power generation is expected to grow up to 10,000 Megawatts. By 2025, Nigeria aims to achieve 15% reduction in population without access to electricity.
The figure of those without access is put at 81 million persons. By 2025, it is estimated that over 75% of rural and remote locations will be provided with power via renewable energy sources including Solar, Wind, Small hydro-power and Biomass.
The generation capacity of the 23 Thermal operating plants in the country is expected to produce 25,000 Megawatts of electricity by 2025. Renewable energy will take up to 23% of total electricity share up from 13%. By 2025, meter penetration in Nigeria is expected to be 100%.
Building Up Nigeria’s Export of Goods and Services to N44 Trillion by 2025
The plan also targets Nigeria’s export trade, projecting an increase in goods and services up to N44 Trillion by 2025. In 2021, export is targeted for N24.4 Trillion, 2022 is targeted for N29.7 Trillion, 2023 N34.5 Trillion, 2024 N39.1 Trillion and 2025 N44.3 Trillion. The import for goods and services projection is put at N29.5 Trillion in 2021, N33.4 Trillion in 2022, N37.2 Trillion in 2023, N41.6 Trillion in 2024 and 46.1 Trillion in 2025.
At the end of the five year period, although Nigeria will still not have achieved a positive Balance of Trade, if the plan works, the trade deficit will be around N1.8 Trillion.
The five year average for export is put at N34.4 Trillion while that of import is N37.5 Trillion.
Growing Nigeria’s Labour Force to 74 Million Persons, Per Capita GDP to $3,700
The National Development Plan targets an increase in the Labour Force of the country to 74 million by 2025. According to the plan, the projection for 2021 is 67.05 million, 2022 is 68.75 million, 2023 70.44 million persons, 2024 72.20 million persons and 2025 74.01 persons.
In the same vein, the Per Capita Gross Domestic Product is targeted to grow up to $3,700 dollars by 2025. These are the year by year details; 2021 $2,200, 2022 $2,500, 2023 $2800, 2024 $3,200 and 2025 $3,700.
The increase between 2021 and 2023 are pegged at $300 each while the figure increased to $400 in 2024 and $500 in 2025.
Increasing Nigeria’s Foreign Direct Investment to $5 Billion by 2025
According to details on the Nigerian Development plan, the foreign direct investment into the country is targeted to grow to $5 billion by 2025.
This is even as the country targets to increase the share of its exports to Africa up to 35% from a base figure of 20.43%.
The country also targets a World Economic Forum global competitiveness ranking of 100 and Ease of Doing business ranking of 100.
ICT Contributing 12.54% to Nigeria’s GDP by 2025
The National Development Plan has noted that the Information and Communication Technology Sector will contribute 12.54% to the GDP of the country by 2025. The country’s broadband penetration will also be increased to 60% according to the plan.
Between 2021 and 2025 500,000 youths are to be enrolled into advanced Digital skills Acquisition programs annually.
Reducing Nigeria’s Military Spending as a Percentage of GDP to 0.2%
According to details in the National Development Plan, by 2025, the country’s military spending as a percentage of the country’s GDP will drop to 0.2% from a current baseline of 0.15%.
Also Nigeria plans to be ranked 1st in Africa in Spy Agencies. As part of its plans, by 2025 the country targets a ranking of 100 on the Global Peace Index, 100 on the Fragile State Index at the global level.
Reducing the Number of Out of School Children to 5 million by 2025
According to details in the National Development Plan, Nigeria Out of School children will drop to 5 million by 2025. This is from the current 10.5 million children it is pegged at.
The plan includes that 10 Nigerian higher institutions will be among the top 1000 universities in the world away from the current four tertiary Institutions.
The literacy rate is also expected to increase to 80% by 2025.
Increasing Nigeria’s Universal Health Coverage to 25% by 2025
According to the National Development Plan, by 2025, Nigeria’s Universal Health Coverage will grow to 25% from the current 5%.
Life expectancy will also grow to 56 years.
The number of institutions offering health services through public private partnership are also expected to grow to 10% of 40,000 health institutions from the current 1% of 23,640 health institutions.
Food Security Index Growing to 60.1 by 2025
The country has revealed plans to improve its food security. According to the document, the Food Security index will increase by 20 points going from its current 40 points to 60 points by 2025.
Severe food insecurity is also expected to reduce from 19.6% to 10% by 2025. People who suffer malnutrition are projected to drop to 5% from the current 7% figure.
The number of children suffering from stunting are also targeted to reduce from 36.8% to 20%.
Under 5 mortality rate is also targeted to be reduced by 25%
90% of Nigerians to have Access to Safe Drinking Water by 2025
The Nigerian government says by 2025 90% Nigerians will have access to safe drinking water.
Currently, 68% of Nigerians have access to water supply services, but that number is expected to increase to 90% by 2025.
Access to basic sanitation services will also increase from 39% to 80%. The document states that open defecation will reduce from the current 23.5% to 10%.
Improving Gender Parity
The government in its plan has projected that by 2025, the gender parity point of the country will improve from 128 to 100.
Gender based violence cases will also drop from 17.4% to 10%.
These are just a few important headlines contained in the government’s plans and as 2021 ends in just a few days, all eyes will be watching to see whether the National Development Plan will translate into tangible national growth and development as promised in the 195-page document.