The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has pointed out potential risks and threats to the conduct of the general elections. These threats are highlighted in the electoral commission’s Election Project Plan (EPP) for the 2023 general election.
Every four years, Nigerians go to the polls to elect representatives into various political offices. Before the election day, the government and INEC put different plans in place to ensure the success of the elections in line with the 1999 Constitution and Electoral Act. A part of these preparations, particularly on the part of INEC is a risk assessment to identify potential threats to the entire electoral process and finding possible ways to mitigate them in order to ensure the overall success of the election.
In almost every democratic country, particularly in nascent and transitional democracies, the electoral process is susceptible to risks and threats, from the pre-election to the post-election period. Nigeria is no exception as reports of violence have trailed almost all the general elections conducted so far since the return to civilian rule in 1999. This has not only impacted on the integrity of these elections but also contributed to low voter turnout in the country as citizens have often cited the fear of electoral violence as part of the reasons why they do not vote.
Based on its assessment, INEC has identified intimidation and physical attacks on voters and political opponents as one of the potential risks and threats in the upcoming general election.
Intimidation and physical attacks on voters and political opponents have become almost a norm in Nigeria’s elections. In the last general election, the European Union (EU) in its report noted that the 2019 elections were marred by violence and intimidation and explained that this harmed the integrity of the electoral process and may deter future participation. In fact, according to them, about 150 people died in election-related violence during the campaign period and over the election days.
It was a similar story in the 2011 and 2015 general elections. The elections were also fraught with reports of intimidation and attacks on voters as well as political opponents.
Another potential threat and risk highlighted by INEC in its assessment are physical attacks and kidnapping of its personnel for ransom and arson attacks on its offices and facilities.
In recent times INEC offices and personnel have been under attack, particularly in the South-East region. The latest attack happened in Imo state on April 14th, with an INEC official reportedly killed by unknown gunmen and the whereabouts of two others unknown. This incident led to the suspension of the Continuous Voter Registration (CVR) in the state.
Apart from the attack on its personnel, the commission’s offices have also been attacked by non-state actors in the last two years. Last year, INEC noted that between February 2019 and May 2021, 41 of its offices were attacked across the country.
Abduction of INEC staff has also been a recurrent trend, the commission decried the abduction of its officials in the recently concluded Imo state bye-election. As the general election approaches, with the high level of insecurity across the country, this is a major concern, and a potential threat to the upcoming election.
Also on the list of potential threats identified by the electoral commission is the snatching and/or destruction of election materials. The snatching of election materials (ballots) has sadly also become a trend in every election cycle in Nigeria. Dataphyte already noted this in an earlier report. INEC has again identified this in its assessment report of the 2023 general election. In addition to this, the commission noted the disruption of polling, counting of ballot papers, and tabulation of results as a potential threat in the upcoming election.
Other threats and risks pointed out by INEC include vote trading, diversion of sensitive election materials, and forgery of result sheets as well as fake news, misinformation, and blackmail in the media. While these are not necessarily new in Nigeria’s elections, they are becoming increasingly concerning as they have negatively affected past elections and could impact on the electoral processes and integrity of the elections as a whole in the forthcoming elections if not addressed.