February 25, 2023, is slated for presidential and National Assembly elections. The electorate will go to the polls to vote for preferred candidates of their choice. The outcome of the polls will determine who fills various positions for the next four years.
Dataphyte has, over the last few weeks, provided some predictive analysis of the outcome of the polls. This analysis provides the strength of the major political parties in the National Assembly elections, where 18 political parties will fight to dominate the 10th Assembly,
Proportion of contestants to available seats
About 4244 persons are vying for 467 positions at the National Assembly in the forthcoming elections.
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The House of Representatives, also called Green Chamber, has 360 available seats for which 3,107 candidates are contesting to fill. This means that about nine persons are contesting for each seat in the Green Chamber.
No fewer than 1137 contestants are vying for 107 available seats in the Senate, also known as the Red Chamber. Thus, the Senate has the contestant rate of about 11 for each seat.
Contestants by party representation
The contestants are from 18 parties with different representative proportions
Data from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) show that the PDP has the highest number of contestants in the forthcoming National Assembly elections. The party has 359 of its members contesting for the House of Representatives and 112 for the Senate. This means the party has 471 contestants.
The New Nigerian People’s Party (NNPP) has 467 contestants to place second as the party with the most contestants. The party has 356 members contesting for the House of Representatives and 111 for the Senate,
With 459 contestants, the APC has the third largest number of contestants. About 348 candidates are vying for the House of Representatives, while 111 are gunning for the Senate.
The African Democratic Congress (ADC) places fourth with 448 contestants, while the Social Democratic Party (SDP) comes fifth with 386 contestants.
The Labour Party (LP) is sixth with 304 contestants: 221 for the House of Representatives, and 83 for the Senate.
The bottom three are Accord Party with 112 contestants; Boot Party (BP) with 36 contestants; and African Action Congress (AAC) with 20 contestants.
Contestants by states
Across states, Kano has the highest number of contestants. The state has 274 contestants gunning for the available 27 National Assembly positions in the state. While 202 seek votes to occupy the 24 available House of Representatives seats, 72 are battling for senatorial seats.
In Lagos State, 190 contestants are battling for the 27 national seats. For the available three senatorial seats, the state has 28 contestants, with 162 24 House vying for the House of Representatives seats. The 190 contestants from the state place it second in the number of contestants.
Oyo State comes third with 172 contestants vying for 17 seats. The state has 138 contestants for 14 House of Representatives seats and 24 candidates eyeing three senatorial seats.
In Imo State, 170 contestants are vying for 13 National Assembly seats in the state to place fourth. At the same time, Rivers has 16 National Assembly seats contested by 166 persons from different parties, putting the state in fifth position.
Ekiti, Yobe, and the FCT occupy the bottom three spots. In Ekiti State, 78 contestants are vying for nine National Assembly seats, just as 53 contestants are battling for nine seats in Yobe State, with 41 persons seeking to occupy three seats in the FCT.
Age distribution of contestants
An analysis of the contestants’ ages shows that most are less than 55 years old. While the House of Representatives has over half of the contestants below 45 years, just about three of every 10 contesting for the Senate are below 45 years.
For the House of Representatives, 1742 of the 3107 contestants are less than 45 years. This shows that 56.07 percent of the contestants are less than 45 years. About 793 of them fall between 46 and 55 years old; 522 of the contestants are between 56 and 65 years old, while 41 of them are above 66 years old.
This shows that 25.52 percent of the contestants are aged between 46 and 55; 16.8 between 56 and 65 years old; and 1.32 percent above 66 years old.
Of the 1137 senatorial seat contestants, 418 of them are below 45 years of age. This reprrsents a 36.76 percent proportion of the contestants. Those between 46 and 55 years old are 337 in number, representing 29.64 percent of the contestants. Also, no fewer than 299 of the contestants representing 26.3 percent fall between 56 and 65 years old, but 79 (6.95 percent) are above 66 years.
Parties with the oldest contestants
An in-depth analysis of the contestants’ ages shows that PDP, APC, PRP, LP, APGA, and BP have older contestants vying for senatorial positions than other parties. The percentage of contestants in these parties above 56 years is greater than the overall contestants.
For PDP, 58.93 percent of contestants are above 56 years. Data show that the party has 66 of its 112 contestants over the age of 56. While 52 of them are between 56 and 66 years, 14 of them are above 66 years.
APC has the highest percentage of contestants above 56 years. The party has 65 of 110 contestants vying for senatorial seats in the country. This means 59.09 percent of its contestants are above the age of 56. A breakdown shows that 52 are between 56 and 65 years, while 13 are above 66 years.
The People’s Redemption Party (PRP) has 53.19 percent of its contestants above 56 years. The party has 25 of its 47 contestants aged between 56 and 65 years, and seven above 66 years.
Dataphyte analysis shows that 18.17 percent of contestants for the House of Representatives seats are above 56 years. Unlike those contesting for senatorial seats, with six parties having more contestants above the overall percentage, those for the House of Representatives have only four parties.
Like the senatorial contestants, APC has the highest percentage in the House of Representatives. The party has 34.29 percent of its contestants above 56 years. A breakdown revealed that out of its 347 contestants for the position, 119 of are above 56 years.
With 32.11 percent, PDP is second. The party has 114 of its 355 contestants for the House of Representatives seats above 56 years.
The NNPP has 80 of its 355 contestants for the House of Representative seats above 56 years. This gives a 22.54 percent proportion of contestants above the age, making it the third party with a larger number of contestants above 56 years.
Accord party completes the list with 16 of its 80 contestants (20 percent) above 56 years.
Thus, more contestants for senatorial positions are above 56 years than those for the House of Representatives. And major parties have more of their contestants above 56 years compared to other parties.
States with party presence for NA election
Only five parties have nationwide presence in all 36 states and the FCT for the House of Representatives seats. In comparison, only four parties have national spread for the Senate.
ADC, PDP, APC, NNPP, and SDP have contestants for seats in all the states, including the FCT. These parties stand a chance of having party members in the Green Chamber in the 10th Assembly.
However, for the position of the Senate, only ADC, PDP, APC, and NNPP have contestants in all the states and the FCT. The SDP has contestants in 36 of the 37 states (including the FCT).
While other parties have double-figure state presence for the Senate and House of Representatives, BP and AAC have single-figure state presence.
The BP is present in just eight states for the House of Representatives election and six states for senatorial contest.
The AAC is contesting seats in the House of Representatives in six states and senatorial seats in seven states.