A recent data published by SBM Intelligence revealed that 2,047 deaths were recorded in Nigeria in the first quarter (Q1) of 2023.
Compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, the number of media-reported deaths declined by about 11 percent. However, there was a significant increase in the number of security personnel who lost their lives within the period under review.
Year-on-year analysis of the data revealed an increase in the overall number of media-reported killings. In terms of civilian casualties, there was a decrease, which could indicate a positive development. However, concerns regarding the country’s security situation persist among the citizens, and experts have urged the government to implement measures aimed at improving the overall security and ensuring the safety of the citizens.
In the lead-up to Nigeria’s 2015 general election, Candidate Muhammadu Buhari promised to put an end to the country’s security challenges, particularly the ones related to Boko Haram terrorism.
In about 14 days, President Buhari will leave office, having served the constitutionally allowed two terms of eight years.
While President Buhari said in April that he got what he wanted and would retire to his hometown in Daura after his handover on May 29, it is unlikely that many Nigerians will say that they got what he promised them in 2015 — to end insecurity in the country.
As enunciated in the 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (as amended), one of the primary functions of the government is to ensure the security of lives and properties of citizens. However, many Nigerians cannot say the government has lived up to its expectation or delivered on this responsibility, especially with the high number of citizens whose lives are cut short by insecurity in the country.
According to the data from SBM Intelligence, in the first three months of this year, a total of 2,047 deaths were reported. These deaths resulted from Boko Haram attacks, bandits, militia herdsmen, abduction, and gang clashes.
Of the 2,047 media-reported deaths in Q1 2023, civilians accounted for 38.98 percent, while security personnel, including vigilantes, accounted for 9.33 percent. Non-state actors such as terrorists, Boko Haram, kidnappers, members of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), etc., accounted for the remaining share.
Compared to Q4 2022, the number of deaths recorded in Q1 2023 reduced by 246 (10.73 percent). However, the number of security personnel (soldiers, police officers, SSS, NSCDC officers) who were killed in the first quarter of 2023 increased by more than half.
In Q4 2022, the number of security personnel that were killed was 59, which were just soldiers and police officers. However, in Q1 2023, 100 security personnel were killed.
No personnel of the State Security Service (SSS) and the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC) were killed, but in the first three months of this year, 28 of personnel of both security bodies were killed.
Further analysis of the number of security personnel who lost their lives in Q1 showed that the soldiers killed reduced to 17 from 25 in Q4 2022. However, 55 police officers lost their lives in Q1 2023 against the 34 recorded in the last quarter of 2022.
Overall, by state, the highest number of deaths in Q1 2023 was recorded in Borno State. This is followed by Niger, Benue, Katsina, and Kaduna — all in the North-East, North-West, and North-Central regions.
Given the high level of insecurity in these regions, analysts say these numbers were expected. In Q4 2022, states in these regions also accounted for the highest number of deaths reported.
The deaths included those of state and non-state actors.
On the bottom of the table were Jigawa, Kogi, Gombe, and Akwa Ibom states. Each of these states recorded at least two killings. Only Ekiti and Yobe States did not record any killing incident in the first quarter of 2023.
Commenting on the country’s Q1 security situation, particularly the number of killings recorded, an expert in Counterterrorism, Intelligence, and Cybersecurity, Mr Timothy Avele, stated that there had been little improvement with regard to the number of killings in the country’s security situation in recent times. He, however, added that kidnapping appeared to be on the rise. This, he said, was another major challenge that the government must pay attention to.
On the increase in the number of state actors killed in the first three months of this year, Mr Avele attributed it to a lack of situational awareness and pre-attack indicators’ readiness, especially in the most flash point zones. He also stated that the increase was due to the rising attacks on security personnel in the South-East part of Nigeria and Kaduna State.
While he described the killings reported in Q1 as unfortunate, Avele charged the incoming administration of Bola Tinubu to take decisive measures to ensure the safety of Nigerians, particularly by addressing the main causes of criminality and insecurity in the country. He said that if this was done, the level of crime would reduce significantly.
“If the new government can tackle headlong at least three of the four main causes of criminality and insecurity in Nigeria (extreme poverty, injustice, unemployment, corruption), then the crime rates will fall below 40 percent,” he concluded.
An economist, Mr Nonso Iheoma, said the next administration must tackle the security situation from the roots. He argued that a country with an unemployment rate of over 33 percent must have insecurity to contend with.
“The next government must create the environment for investors. When people invest, they create jobs and reduce crimes. Two, redefine the education system to emphasise more technical studies than theoretical studies. Science and technology skills develop nations and help people to easily become independent,” he added.