On May 11, 2019, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared Abdullahi Sule of the All Progressives Congress (APC) winner of the Nasarawa state governorship election. He polled 327,229 votes to defeat other opponents in the election.
On May 3, 2022, he declared his ambition to run for a second term, stressing that the development initiatives of his administration would earn him another victory at the polls.
Dataphyte series is chronicling the performances of state governors seeking re-election and those who will complete their second terms in May 2023. This piece examines the performance of Abdullahi Sule on certain key indicators in the state.
GDP, IGR & fiscal sustainability
GDP
According to available data, Nasarawa State had an estimated GDP of $3.290 billion in 2010 and was ranked the sixth state in Nigeria with the smallest GDP.
While there hasn’t been an annual publication of subnational GDP data to understand the GDP growth rate of the state, particularly under the Abdullahi Sule administration, in 2022, BudgIT disclosed in its “State of States Report” that the state now has a GDP of N1.86 trillion.
This is approximately $4.50 billion using the 2021 average exchange rate of N412.99/$1 adopted by BudgIT in the report. With this current figure, the Nasarawa now ranks seventh in the list of states with the smallest economic size. Among its peers in the North-Central region, it has the smallest GDP.
IGR
Part of what constitutes a state’s fiscal size is the internally generated revenue (IGR). It is generated by states through Pay-As-You-Earn Tax (PAYE), direct assessment, road taxes, and revenues from some ministries, departments and agencies (MDAs).
According to a research report, the capacity of a state to drive long-term economic activity such as boosting employment and offering effective public services is often demonstrated through the amount of independent revenue it can generate.
The amount of internal revenue a state is able to generate also demonstrates its financial strength and ability to function well, independent of the allocation from the federation account, according to experts.
So far, under the Abdullahi Sule government, the state has recorded positive growth in its internal revenue. The state grew its IGR from N14.53 billion in 2019 to N20.67 billion in 2021 and ranked as the 19th state that generated the most internal revenue in 2021.
Out of the 36 states, Nasarawa had the 7th largest IGR per capita in 2021 – N7,052.
Although the state has shown commendable growth with respect to its internal revenue, data show that it is still heavily reliant on federally allocated funds, as FAAC disbursement accounted for a bulk of the state’s income.
According to the data from NBS, between 2019 and 2021, Nasarawa made a total (i.e., IGR plus FAAC) revenue of N188.14 billion. Out of this figure, FAAC accounted for 72.74 percent, while IGR was only 27.26 percent. This shows that a significant portion of the state’s revenue in the period under review came from FAAC allocation, depicting a high level of dependence on federally allocated funds. According to experts, this situation is unhealthy and exposes the state to volatility risks often associated with crude oil prices, which make up a considerable chunk of federally-generated revenue.
Fiscal sustainability
In October 2022, BudgIT assessed the fiscal sustainability of the 36 states in Nigeria using indices such as the ability of a state to cover operating costs with only its IGR; ability to cover all operating expenses and loan repayment obligations without resorting to borrowing; debt sustainability; and the prioritisation of capital over recurrent expenditures.
From the ranking, Nasarawa State emerged 13th position out of the 36 states. The state’s 2022 performance is an improvement from its 16th position in the 2021 ranking. This improvement, according to BugIT, was largely due to the state’s IGR performance. The state has recorded a continuous improvement in its fiscal sustainability ranking under the Abdullahi Sule-led administration. In 2020, the state was ranked 21st out of 36 states.
Also worth highlighting under the fiscal sustainability of the state is the domestic and foreign debt obligation.
At the end of 2019, the state had a domestic debt of N56.51 billion. This increased to N59.39 billion the following year. By the end of 2021, the state reduced its domestic debt, although it was still higher than what it was in 2019.
The same trend is observed with its foreign debt except that its total foreign debt as of December 2021 was lower than it was in 2019. Combined, the state has a total debt (domestic and foreign) of N77.59 billion, ranking as the 4th least indebted state in the country.
Unemployment rate
In 2018, Nasarawa State had an unemployment rate of 27.39 percent and ranked as the 11th out of the 36 states in the country with the highest unemployment rate. In the North-Central region, its unemployment rate was the highest.
It was not surprising, therefore, when Abdullahi Sule assumed office in 2019 and vowed to focus on job creation as part of an overall plan to address widespread poverty.
To address the problem of unemployment in the state, by extension, poverty, Governor Abdullahi Sule initiated various programmes and policies, including strengthening the Nasarawa State Agency for Youth Empowerment Scheme (NAYES). The state government also recruited a number of persons into the state’s workforce.
Although the state is no longer the 11th with the highest unemployment rate, the most recent labour force statistics put the its current unemployment rate at 29.83 percent.
This indicates a 2.44 percent increase from the 2018 rate. Given its attendant negative impacts on crimes, criminality, and insecurity, analysts believe that whoever emerges as the state’s next governor should, among others, priortise tackling the state’s high unemployment rate.
Poverty rate
Another key indicator to consider is the state’s poverty headcount ratio. In 2019, NBS used an actual per capita expenditure of N137,430 per year (or N376.50 per day) as the basis for the measurement of its poverty rate in Nigeria. According to the report by NBS, Nasarawa State had a poverty rate of 57.3 percent, making it the 12th state in Nigeria with the highest poverty rate. While in the North-Central region, it had the second-highest poverty rate.
On several occasions, Governor Abdullahi Sule assured the people of Nasarawa that his administration would implement programmes that would create jobs, stimulate economic activities, reduce inequality, and eradicate poverty in the state.
To achieve this, his government keyed into the federal government intervention programmes in reducing poverty, such as Saving One Million Lives, the NEWMAP, the Special Public Works, and the Conditional Cash Transfer, among others.
These initiatives may not have yielded the intended results as the latest National Multidimensional Poverty Index report released by NBS on November 18, 2022, revealed that the state now has a poverty rate of 60.7 percent. That is, 60.7 percent of the state’s population are multidimensionally poor. The MPI report measured the poverty rate on three dimensions — health, education, and living standards.
Number of out-of-school children
According to the 2018 data on the number of out-of-school children in Nigeria, 187,000 children were out of school in Nasarawa State. Boys accounted for the majority of the figure, 62.99 per cent, while girls made up 37.01 percent.
In 2022, the Nasarawa State Desk Officer of the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) in the Ministry of Education, Ali Musa, disclosed the state had returned no fewer than 10,353 out-of-school pupils back to school in two local government areas (LGAs) of the state.
Although no recent out-of-school children data have been published by NBS, the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) stated in 2022 that the number of out-of-school children in Nigeria had increased to 20 million, up from an estimated 10 million in 2018. With this increase in the number of out-of-school children at the national level, Nasarawa State may have experienced a corresponding rise in its number of out-of-school children. Experts advise that governorship candidates should factor this into their policy documents and develop policies and interventions that would address the menace of out-of-school children in the state.
Ease of doing business
Among other things, one key factor that attracts both local and international investment to a country or a state is its business environment. Governor Abdullahi Sule recognised this. Hence, in 2020, he signed the Nasarawa State Investment Development Agency Bill 2020 and the Nasarawa State Mortgage and Foreclosure Bill into law. According to him, both bills were targeted at creating an enabling environment that would attract investors to the state.
While there is no data on the business environment before the current administration came into office to assess accurately the impact of these bills and other initiatives taken by the Abdullahi Sule-led government, the most recent subnational data on the ease of doing business ranked the state 23rd out of the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). The state had an overall score of 5.20 out of a total index score of 10.
The PEBEC ranking was published in 2021. The ranking was done on four thematic areas — Infrastructure and Security, Transparency and Access to Information, Regulatory Environment, and Workforce Readiness.
Under-5 mortality rate
Another important indicator used to assess a state’s progress is the under-5 mortality. This is is the probability of a child dying between birth and the fifth birthday. In 2018, the under-5 mortality rate in Nigeria was 132 per 1,000 live births.
According to the data from NBS, Nasarawa State had an under-5 mortality rate of 120 per 1,000 live births, the second highest in the North-Central region.
The recent Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey released last year showed that the state had improved on this indicator. Under-5 mortality rate is currently estimated at 65 deaths per 1,000 live births.
While this is commendable, the state is still behind from 20 per 1,000 live births target of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
Subnational audit Efficacy index
In 2021, the Paradigm Leadership Support Initiative (PLSI) used public audits to rate the 36 states’ management and their usage of public finances based on their level of accountability and openness. The assessment was based on six criteria, as shown in the table below.
In the 2021 ranking, Nasarawa scored 56 out of 100 and ranked 24th out of the 36 states assessed. The state’s performance in 2021 was a slight improvement from its 2020 ranking when it finished 25th place with a total score of 40.
Open data compliance
The state’s level of open data compliance under the Abdullahi Sule-led government using the World Bank’s State Fiscal Transparency, Accountability, and Sustainability (SFTAS) metrics is also important.
The SFTAS project kicked off in 2018 and ended in June 2022. The project was designed to strengthen transparency and accountability at the sub-national level. It provided grants to states based on indices that included openness of fiscal transparency and accountability data — including procurement, audit reports, budgets, and implementation of e-procurement systems, among other things.
As of the fourth quarter of 2021, 26 states in Nigeria were reported to have created their open contracting portals where they publish contracting data to foster transparency, and Nasarawa State was one of them.
Checks by Dataphyte show that the state published its contracting information on its open contracting portal although the last information published was in January 2022.
Local government election
The final indicator is the level of autonomy of local governments in the state.
Nigeria operates a federal system of government with three tiers — the federal, state, and local governments – which ideally should function as independent entities. However, the local government, often called government at the grassroots, has become an extension of the state government. According to reports, some state governors sometimes dismiss or dissolve elected local government council members. In other cases, they refuse to conduct new elections for months or years. While we cannot fully ascertain the level of autonomy of the local governments in Nasarawa State, reports show that the state has conducted its local government council elections under the leadership of Abdullahi Sule.