The 2022 Osun Governorship election will be held on July 16, 2022, and will mark the 6th to be conducted since the state was created in 1991.
Osun state elected its first democratic Governor in 1992. The elected Governor, Isiaka Adeleke of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) ruled for 22 months until all political offices in Nigeria were dissolved by the then military Head of State, Ibrahim Babangida following the annulment of the June 12, 1993, Presidential election.
Upon Nigeria’s return to democracy in May 1999, Adebisi Akande was elected as the state’s Governor on the platform of the Alliance for Democracy (AD)— he managed the affairs of the state till May 29, 2003.
Olagunsoye Oyinlola took over in 2003 under the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and ruled till 2010 when Rauf Aregbesola of the All Progressives Congress (APC) was elected as the next Governor of the state. The Deputy Governors for both Oyinlola and Aregbesola were women, Olusola Obada and TitiLaoye-Tomor, respectively. They are the only two women who have served as the State’s Deputy-Governors.
The last governorship election in the state was in September 2018, and Gboyega Oyetola of the APC was declared the winner of the re-run election by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) —having polled 255,505 votes, defeating his closet contender, Ademola Adeleke of the PDP with just 482 votes. Adeleke secured a total of 255,023 votes.
Trend of Registered Voters and Turnout in Osun Guber Elections
Data shows that there has been a continuous increase in the number of registered voters in Osun state in the election cycles under review. While it is expected that an increase in the number of registered voters should translate into higher voter turnout every election cycle, it is the opposite in Osun state as the level of turnout keeps declining in each election.
In the 2003 election, the number of registered voters stood at 1.37 million, and 58.63% of the people came out to vote on the election day. By 2018, the number of registered voters climbed to 1.68 million. However, voter turnout declined to 45.74% which raises the question, whether the people of Osun state are losing faith in the electoral process?
In the latest Continuous Voter Registration (CVR) released by INEC, an additional 360,548 persons have completed their voter card registration. It is only hoped that this addition to the existing number of registered voters will translate to increased voter turnout in the July 16 polls.
Analysis of the Candidates for the Governorship Race
The final list of candidates released by INEC on April 12 shows that there are 15 candidates for the 2022 governorship election. This is a drop from the 48 candidates who contested in the 2018 election. Also, unlike the 2018 guber election which had 4 female governorship candidates, this year’s election has no female candidate, making it an all-male contest.
There are however 6 female deputies and they’re candidates of Action Democratic Party, Boot Party, New Nigeria People’s Party, National Rescue Movement, Young Progressive Party and Zenith Labour Party. Neither of the two major political parties fielded a female candidate or deputy.
Out of the 15 governorship candidates, the YPP fields the youngest candidate (35 years of age), while the oldest candidate is Oyetola of the APC (67 years). The average age of the governorship candidates is 50.5.
For the deputy governorship position, the AAC has the youngest candidate (35years), while SDP has the oldest at 66 years. The average age stands at 50.9 years.
Also, the 2 top candidates in the 2018 election — Oyetola of the APC who is the incumbent governor and Adeleke of the PDP — will be going head to head again in this year’s contest.
Recall that both candidates contested in the 2018 poll where Adeleke had an initial lead with 254,698 votes and Oyetola came second with 254,345 votes. However, the election was declared inconclusive by INEC and a re-run was conducted in which Oyetola defeated Adeleke with only 482 votes.
Issues Reported in Previous Election
As with most elections conducted in Nigeria, the 2018 Osun guber election was not without reports of vote-buying. The Nigeria Civil Society Situation Room in their report on the election noted these incidents. YIAGA Africa as well as local media who monitored the election also corroborated this in their reports.
The Nigeria Civil Society Situation Room noted that the voting buying happened in a “reduced and less brazen manner due to the announcement by INEC and law enforcement officials that those caught would be arrested and charged to court”.
For the forthcoming elections, politicians may likely take undue advantage of the country’s current economic hardship by attempting to buy the votes of the common man. The Electoral Commission and security agents should intensify their efforts and ensure a mechanism is put in place to prevent this as vote-buying negatively impacts the credibility of an election.
The Osun 2018 governorship election was marred with violence and intimidation. Yiaga Africa noted that supporters of the opposition party were attacked and the media intimidated. The US elections observation mission also stated this in their observation of the exercise. Speaking about it, the then US Consul General, John Bray said that “we witnessed what appeared to be incidents of interference and intimidation of voters and heard reports of harassment of party monitors, journalists, and domestic observers.” Thus, as the election approaches, INEC and security agents need to pay attention to preventing these malpractices, while all the candidates in the race are enjoined to show political maturity and sue for peace.
In the last guber election, there were also reports of slow accreditation due to delays in the functioning of the smart card readers. In recent elections conducted by INEC, it has also been noted that some voters were disenfranchised because of delays or malfunctioning card readers. As the people of Osun state head to the polls on July 16, INEC will have to prioritise the optimal functioning of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) to ensure a seamless voting process for the electorates.