Dataphyte launches The Nigeria Security Index Series to provide data, trends and insights on various security challenges in Nigeria.
For most of their attacks, Nigeria’s dreaded insurgent group, Boko Haram, deployed explosives, landmines and IED, analysis of recent data shows. Data collected for a period of ten years, between 2010 and 2019, indicates that the Islamic group, otherwise known as Boko Haram – Jamatu Ahli is-Sunnah lid-Dawatai wal-Jihad used these devices for 99% of their attacks. The first attack was carried out in 2009 and since then, numerous attacks have been perpetrated resulting in several casualties, analysis of data sourced from the database of Nigeria Watch, a platform which monitors violence in Nigeria shows. The region hit most by these incessant attacks is the North–East (73.26% of all attacks) resulting in a significant number of casualties. 13.86% of these attacks were perpetrated in the North-West region and the North-Central having the least number of attacks (12.87% of all attacks).
The use of these sophisticated weapons was deployed – 99.01% of the time – shows that the group in each of their attacks aim at wreaking havoc. These objectives came with an alarming rate of fatalities (96.87% of all fatalities) caused by these explosive attacks. The remaining 1% of attacks are related to sexual violence and several acts of risking the lives of women and girls.
Of the 36 States of the federation, Borno, in the hinterland of the northeast, recorded the most number of cases and fatalities with a considerable number of fatalities caused by Improvised Electronic Devices (IEDs) and landmines. Borno recorded the highest number of coordinated attacks due to its location being the state where the group is camped.
Majority (99.01% of all cases) of the attacks perpetrated by this group were precise. They were carried out with utmost precision. Hence the perpetrators can be said to have undergone some form of military training which aided their coordination. Data analysis shows there was a considerable amount of cases of Boko-Haram attacks and fatalities caused by these attacks. Of these ten years, 2010 – 2014 saw the largest number of cases (98.01% of all cases) and fatalities (98.52% of all fatalities) recorded with a significant increase (6.93% increase) in the fatalities recorded between 2013 and 2014.
This may be due to the inefficiency of the Nigerian Army at tackling the group. On the attack on Metele base, Eze Onyekpere, the lead director at the Abuja-based Centre for Social Justice, can be quoted regarding the military’s strategy. He said, it appears to be a lack of coordination, someone will attack a military compound and for two or three hours the battle is raging and no one coming to support them. He also added that “Where is the air force? How is it that Boko Haram can travel tens of kilometres and sneak up on a military base?” and then recommended that “a change of manpower at the top” is necessary.
Chidi Nwaonu, from Peccavi Consulting, a London based security group whose focal point is on Africa said “The general context of everything is that Nigeria is more or less a failed state, the government has lost basic control of most of the country. The enemy has the initiative, they are dictating what is happening … The Nigerian armed forces don’t have an overarching strategy and haven’t been able to impose their will on the battle.”
The primary data used by Nigeria Watch were sourced mostly from reports by the international news outlet. Hence, the onus is on national news outlet to increase their participation and reliability in reporting the cases carried out by these terrorist groups.
The Data collected between 2010 and 2019 pinpoints that majority of the attacks were carried out using either explosives/IED/Landmine and the perpetrator of these attacks was Boko-Haram-Jamatu Ahli-is-Sunnah lid-Dawatai wal-Jihad. Also, Borno recorded the most number of cases and fatalities with a considerable number of fatalities caused by explosions/IED/landmine.
Although, in recent years, the number of attacks and fatalities has dwindled considerably. Attention should be paid to both Borno and Plateau State as these locations have a higher probability to get attacked in the future and in order to prevent future occurrence of these attacks, military presence may be required.