Development

Nigeria Security Index: Lagos and Borno Have Highest Concentration of Violence Among States

By Abdulazeez Abdullah

May 31, 2020

Over the years, Nigeria has been caught in spreading acts of violence, ranging from terrorism, ethnoreligious clashes and land disputes to crimes, and such as rape and armed robbery, and political clashes. An analysis of the Nigeria Watch Data, a platform which monitors violence between, 2006 and 2020, showed recorded 27,584 cases of violence. These acts of violence led to 130,527 deaths. The number of deaths recorded was at an all-time high in 2014 with a record of 22,119 deaths. This, the 2014 statistic, represents 16.95 per cent of all deaths in the period under review.

Lagos and Borno states had the highest concentration of violence, according to the Nigeria Watch Data.

Lagos State had the highest number of attacks with 4,847 cases accounting for 17.57 per cent of all attacks, likely due to its cosmopolitan, highly urbanised setting. Lagos recorded 1,333 (13.10%) deaths in 2006, which is the highest number of deaths recorded in the state. However, there is a downward trend in the number of deaths recorded in Lagos State observed.

The main protagonists in the majority of the deaths (27.56%) in Lagos were the Nigerian Police. This could be a result of several clashes between the police and host communities/cult societies/political groups. Also, 44.86% of the deaths in Lagos State were caused by multiple crimes perpetrated in the state. These crimes ranged from rape, robbery, assault, burglary, vehicle theft, etc.

While Lagos had the highest cases of violence, Borno State suffered most fatalities, despite only 1,820 (6.60%) cases of violence. Borno, in the hinterland of the northeast, had most deaths with 34,277 fatalities on record. This represents 26.26% of all deaths recorded across the country and is due to the decade-long insurgency in the state, which is the epicentre and birthplace of Boko Haram insurgency.

The major protagonists of the violent acts in Borno State were the armed forces as they were involved in 54.51% of deaths in the state. Their involvement included clashes with both political and Islamic groups. The notorious group, Boko Haram-Jamatu Ahli is-Sunnah lid-Dawatai wal-Jihad, is camped in the state and this is the reason for the large involvement of the armed forces in the state.

Prior to 2009, the number of cases of the acts of violence and deaths recorded was minimal but the year that followed, 2010, showed a significant increase. There was 11.05% increase in the number of cases reported between 2010 and 2014 with 27.43% increase in the number of deaths accounted for within the same timeframe. This increase can be attributed to the presence of the terrorist group Boko Haram as the group carried out their first attack in 2009 and increased the rate of their attacks from then on. Also, 90.82% of the deaths in the state during the period covered by the National Watch Data was caused by religious clashes. These clashes were either the army vs. Islamic group (Boko Haram) or clashes between different religious groups in the state.

Data collected between 2006 and 2020 showed there was a significant number of cases and deaths resulting from these acts of violence across all states of the federation. Of these years, 2014 saw the highest number of cases (10.88% of all cases) and deaths (16.95% of all deaths).

With respect to the cause of these acts of violence, crime accounted for the majority of the deaths and cause of these acts of violence. A series of crime accounted for 52.48% of cases of acts of violence across all states of the federation resulting in 31.41% of all deaths.

The army was involved with a higher percentage (26.31% of all deaths) of deaths that resulted from these acts of violence across all states of the federation. Community clashes contributed 21.37% deaths and Islamic groups contributed 17.16% deaths.

Most of the cases of violent attacks were recorded in Lagos with Kebbi accounting for the least number of cases. Although Lagos recorded the highest number of attacks, the fatal effects of the violent attacks were observed more in Borno which is indicated by the number of deaths it recorded (being the highest) with Ekiti recording the least number of deaths. This is an indication that the type of violent attacks recorded in Borno was more severe and fatal compared to those of other states. Also, Maiduguri, which is a local government in Borno recorded the highest number of deaths across all local government areas in the country. Analysis of this data indicates that crime and religion were the major causes of the acts of violence recorded across the different states in the country with oil distribution causing the least number of violent attacks.