Ten states with 39.19 million registered voters can will play vital roles in deciding the country’s next president come February 25, 2023. These states account for 41.92 per cent of the total registered voters in the country.
With electioneering and political chess game going on among presidential candidates, each is eyeing the numbers that will enable them to have a landslide victory at the end of the polls.
With the presidential election taking place across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, candidates are seeking the majority votes from 10 states to stand the chance of occupying the plum seat at Aso Villa.
The amended 2022 Electoral Act firmly states how the presidential election will be decided and won. Section 63 defines two conditions for a candidate to be declared a winner. Section 63 empowers the chief electoral commissioner and returning officer for the presidential election to complete form EC8E and return the candidate
The winner is also expected to have the majority (highest number) of votes cast at the election.
The winner will also have not less than one-quarter of the votes cast at the election in at least two-thirds of all the states in the federation and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja
Thus, to fulfill Section 63(i) of the Electoral Act, candidates will seek to get as many votes as possible from the 93.67 million registered voters scattered disproportionately across the country.
Any candidate who can convincingly win Lagos, Kano, Kaduna, Rivers, Katsina, Oyo, Delta, Plateau, Benue, and Bauchi states will have about 39.19 million total vote cast. This will mean that the candidate will have about 41.92 percent of the votes from these states alone, which will fulfill Section 63(i). But this is assuming that all registered voters will vote, which is nearly impossible.
However, even if there is 40 or 50 percent chance of registered voters turning up to vote in the 10 states, their number will outweigh those of many other states, analysts say.
A breakdown of the number of registered voters in these states shows that Lagos has the highest number of registered voters. The state has 7.06 million registered voters, representing 7.55 percent of the total registered voters in the country.
Kano State has 5.92 million registered voters, and while Kaduna State has 4.34 million registered voters. This shows that Kano State’s registered voters represent 6.34 percent of the total. That of Kaduna State is 4.64 percent.
In Rivers State, 3.54 million of them are duly registered voters, while the number is 3.52 million in Katsina State. This gives a proportion of 3.78 percent, and 3.76 percent of those in Rivers and Katsina states, respectively, to total registered voters.
The other five states are Oyo State, with 3.38 million registered voters; Delta State, with 3.22 million; Plateau State, with 2.79 million; Benue State, with 2.78 million; and Bauchi State, with 2.75 million.
However, while the candidate winning the majority of these states may fulfill Section 63(i), he/she still has to fulfill Section 63(ii) to be declared president. Besides getting majority votes, this entails that the candidate will also need at least one-quarter of the votes cast in two-thirds of the 36 states and the FCT.
Thus, the candidate needs to get votes from other states, with 10 bottom states accounting for 15.56 million registered voters, representing 16.65 percent. These bottom states in descending order are: Zamfara, Nasarawa, Cross River, Kwara, Ebonyi, Gombe, FCT, Yobe, Bayelsa, and Ekiti states.
The middle 17 states have 38.72 million registered voters, representing 41.43 percent of the total.
Expert speaks
Speaking to Dataphyte, an election expert and Ford Fellow, Austin Aigbe, noted Nigeria practiced a similar electoral system to the United States, where winning in California and New York was not the only requirement for being the president. Thus, even if a candidate secures the votes from these states, he will not be the president as he has fulfilled just one clause.
The election expert pointed out that parties should concentrate on areas with more strength. “For instance, Labour Party has just 136,000 party agents. They will need to delegate them to where they know they can win to protect their voters.”
Aigbe pointed out that even if a candidate got the votes in these 10 states, he/she would not be president of Nigeria, noting that the he/she must also get two-thirds of the total votes cast in the 36 states and FCT.
He further said that voter turnout was not also a the only determining factor as the winner would be determined by a majority vote and two-thirds criteria fulfillment.