Young people, old couples, and their little children trudge on like refugees exiting a war-torn town within a brief ceasefire window.
They push on bag-load of clothes and homeland foods through Nigeria’s departure lounges for international flights every morning, some in the evening, past the various checks to catch their sequestering flights to Canada, the UK, the US, Europe, Australia, Dubai, and the uttermost parts of the world.
What are they running from? What are they chasing after?
It used to be the low-income earners that left Nigeria searching for greener pastures abroad. Now it’s the more fortunate ones, young and old, single and married, that abandon ship, and Japa!
Oh, if you don’t get the meaning of Japa, forget it!
If you get the meaning of Japa, continue.
It used to be the bodies of desperate low-income earning Nigerians fleeing excruciating poverty that washed up the shores of the Mediterranean, having drowned to their deaths while trying to cross from Africa into Europe on overcrowded boats.
It was the fate-defying get-rich-or-die-trying young women and men that dropped dead in the hot sands during their trans-Saharan trek to get a life in Libya. Many more are dehumanised by xenophobic natives of South Africa and Ghana, barred by Tanzania and other African countries, or dismembered by organ-harvesting syndicates worldwide.
Sadly, they were all fleeing a plague of poverty at home. They were all seeking a cure for the paralysis of their dignity by a vain, vacuous and vicious elite at home.
So we can understand their desperation, and we can wish all the brave souls of the departed peace and bliss at last, just as we wish all the survivors in the diaspora purpose and blessings after all.
But how does one explain the thousands of middle-class Nigerian families fleeing the country?
How does one explain the rationale behind successful couples who sell their properties, give up their well-paid jobs, withdraw their kids from top private schools, and Japa?
Why are people ready to forfeit everything they are and have just to leave Nigeria?
Al Shaitan, the foremost evil sage, once answered these questions. He said, “Skin for skin, yes, all that a man has he will give for his life… touch his bone and his flesh…”
Indeed, the people’s confusion has reached the bone, as Fela prophesied. And it extends to their endangered flesh and blood, their kith and kin.
There’s a problem in Nigeria. Something is responsible for this fright and flight.
But the fear of what, and flight into what? These are the deep things they all considered before they Japa.
There are just 2 fears: of present figures and a precarious future.
In the midst of these fears, is there any faith in a promising future for this country?
Those who know, know.
The Fear of Present Figures
One little figure explains these 2 fears of the middle-class Nigerian, both the low-middle-income earners and the upper-middle-income earners. It is called the human capital index (HCI).
“The HCI measures key points along the trajectory from birth to adulthood of a child born today.
- In the poorest countries in the world, there is a significant risk that the child does not even survive to her 5th birthday.
- Even if she does reach school age, there is a further risk that she does not start school, let alone complete the full cycle of 14 years of school from pre-school to Grade 12 that is the norm in rich countries.
- The time she does spend in school may translate unevenly into learning, depending on the quality of teachers and schools she experiences.
- When she reaches age 18, she carries with her lasting effects of poor health and nutrition in childhood that limit her physical and cognitive abilities as an adult.
| Indicator | Most Recent Estimate | ||
| Indicator | Male + Female | MaleOnly | FemaleOnly |
| HCI Component 1: Survival | |||
| Probability of Survival to Age 5 | 0.880 | 0.873 | 0.887 |
| HCI Component 2: School | |||
| Expected Years of School | 10.2 | 10.3 | 10.1 |
| Harmonized Test Scores | 309 | 310 | 308 |
| HCI Component 3: Health | |||
| Survival Rate from Age 15-60 | 0.659 | 0.639 | 0.679 |
| Fraction of Children Under 5 Not Stunted | 0.632 | 0.606 | 0.659 |
| Human Capital Index (HCI) 2020 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| Uncertainty Interval | [0.33,0.38] | [0.33,0.38] | [0.34,0.39] |
This little figure “measures the amount of human capital that a child born today can expect to attain by age 18, given the risks of poor health and poor education that prevail in the country where she lives.”
So this index reflects “how improvements in current health and education outcomes shape the productivity of the next generation of workers, assuming that children born today experience over the next 18 years the educational opportunities and health risks that children in this age range currently face.
Low life Expectation
The HCI for the year 2020 shows that a child born in Nigeria just before the year 2020 will be 36% as productive when she grows up as she could have been if she enjoyed complete education and full health.
While Nigeria is located in Sub-Saharan Africa and is a lower middle-income country with an average monthly income of N76,711 (Gross National Income per capita of $2,100 current USD in 2021), it ranks way below the average for its pair income countries (48%), below the Sub-Saharan African average of 40%, and even below the average score for low-income countries (0.37).
Risky Early Years
Nigeria poses the worst threat to life at its earliest presentation. The country is one of the riskiest place for a baby to be born in the world. Due to myriads of healthcare disservice, 12 babies die out of every 100 births before their 5th birthday. Here, Nigeria has the worst record in all metrics.
Low Educational Expectations
Nigeria prides itself on increasing out-of-school children annually. A child who starts school at age 4 can expect to complete just 10.2 years of school out of the standard 14 years of schooling by her 18th birthday.